Looking back at 2025: What has driven BTC prices through "all four seasons" in a year?

Deng Tong, Golden Finance

As 2025 approaches its end, Golden Finance, on the occasion of bidding farewell to the old and welcoming the new, launches the “Looking Back at 2025” series of articles. We review the year’s developments in the crypto industry and also hope that in the new year, the winter will dissipate and the starry river will shine forever.

In 2025, the crypto market once flourished, reaching a historic high, then returned to calm, entering a phase of oscillation and bottoming out. This article reviews the performance of the crypto market this year.

BTC Price 2025 Chart

ETH Price 2025 Chart

1. January-February: Loose signals + Trump’s return to the White House boost BTC to $100,000

On January 1, 2025, BTC was priced at $93,507.88, then gradually rose until early February, with BTC hovering above $100,000 for most of the time. The year started with a promising rally, and the entire industry was jubilant, with investors generally optimistic about the crypto market’s direction for the year.

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its January and February meetings but signaled “cautious observation and expectations of easing,” prompting the market to preemptively position for liquidity benefits. Both meetings kept the federal funds rate target range stable at 4.25% to 4.5%. Policy signals showed that the January statement removed the previous language about “inflation returning to the 2% target and making progress,” and added concerns about “re-inflation risks.” Fed Chair Powell explicitly stated that rate cuts would only be considered if “inflation truly progresses or the labor market weakens,” emphasizing that “the threshold for rate reversal is very high,” ruling out the possibility of re-raising rates. The February minutes further revealed that officials unanimously believed the current restrictive monetary policy was giving the economy time to assess, while also worrying that Trump’s tariff policies could push inflation higher. However, there was a consensus that “rate cuts in 2025 remain the main direction,” with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays predicting two 25 basis point rate cuts within the year.

Additionally, former US President Trump returned to the White House on January 20, becoming the first “crypto president” in US history. This resonated with the Fed’s easing expectations and became a catalyst for the crypto market rally.

2. March-April: Tariff hammer + slowing Fed easing causes BTC correction

Since Trump’s return to the White House, the market has been digesting expectations of his aggressive tariff policies.

At the end of February, Trump announced that tariffs originally planned for Canada and Mexico would be implemented as scheduled next month after a delay—giving these countries extra time to resolve border security issues, with tariffs taking effect after March 4.

The US’s formal push for tariffs on Canada and Mexico materialized, prompting the market to reassess the global trade environment. The implementation of tariffs on March 4 sparked concerns over global trade friction, increasing risk aversion and causing funds to withdraw from risk assets, favoring the US dollar and cash assets in the short term.

On March 23, the Fed’s rate decision ended, with rates remaining unchanged but inflation expectations raised, signaling a “slowing of easing pace,” breaking the previous optimistic outlook for rapid rate cuts. Amid multiple negative factors, the crypto market experienced a short-term sell-off.

3. May-October: Policy benefits + resumption of rate cuts push BTC to new double-top highs

US crypto regulation policies and the easing of rate hikes truly ushered in a “crypto summer.” Influenced by this, BTC soared, reaching a historic high of $123,561 on August 14, and hitting another peak of $124,774 on October 7.

From July 14-18, the US “Crypto Week” kicked off, with three major crypto regulation bills enacted.

On June 17, the US Senate passed the “Genius Act,” which guides and establishes a national framework for US stablecoins, pushing the federal government’s regulatory efforts on stablecoins and pressuring the House to plan the next phase of digital asset regulation. The bill was signed into law by Trump on July 18. Its enactment marked the first formal establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the US.

On July 17, the House passed the “Anti-CBDC Monitoring National Act” with 219 votes to 210.

On June 23, the House Financial Services Committee and Agriculture Committee submitted the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act,” defining digital commodities as digital assets whose value is intrinsically linked to blockchain usage. The bill was passed by the House on July 17.

On September 18, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, returning liquidity easing expectations; simultaneously, several central banks worldwide began including small amounts of BTC in foreign exchange reserves for diversification. The Dutch Central Bank disclosed holding $1.5 billion worth of BTC assets, boosting market confidence.

On October 1, the US federal government shut down for 43 days due to funding exhaustion, heightening concerns about economic uncertainty and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. BTC became favored by large institutions and retail investors, leading to another all-time high on October 7. Although the rally slowed afterward, BTC mostly stayed above $110,000 in October.

Additionally, news such as Circle’s IPO on June 5, Hong Kong’s “Stablecoin Regulations Draft” effective August 1, Trump family’s WLFI transactions on September 1, and major companies announcing crypto reserves periodically fueled market optimism.

While the market was rising, risks also lurked. After reaching over $120,000 in October, BTC began a slow decline, sparking widespread debate about whether it was already in a bear market in the last two months of the year.

4. November-December: Concerns about future economy weaken BTC rally

On November 1, BTC was priced at $109,574, then entered a decline. On November 23, it hit a low of $84,682, down 22.71% from the beginning of the month. Although most of the time it hovered above $90,000, the rally lacked strength, prompting various industry speculations.

The US government shutdown led to missing key economic data, raising concerns about economic fundamentals and future interest rate trends, negatively impacting risk assets.

Moreover, although expectations for continued Fed rate cuts had already been set, the Fed’s cautious signals before rate cuts led to divided market views on future liquidity. On December 10, the Fed made its third rate cut of the year, but the market interpreted it as a “recessionary rate cut,” intensifying pessimism. Investors reassessed macro variables like global interest rate paths and fiscal health, leaning toward more conservative asset allocations amid uncertainty.

As the crypto market remained sluggish, many DAT companies struggled to survive, and increased liquidations caused by market volatility further pushed prices downward.

Currently, the market is hoping for a “Christmas rally,” which might be the “hope of the whole village” this year.

Summary

The year 2025 began with an almost “certain” optimistic sentiment, with Trump’s rise fueling industry expectations. After experiencing tariff threats and a slowdown in Fed easing, the market re-emerged after a period of dormancy: policy benefits, resumption of rate cuts, IPOs of crypto companies like Circle, Trump family projects, and the emergence of DAT companies all contributed to pushing BTC above $120,000 twice. However, influenced by macroeconomic expectations, BTC struggled to maintain momentum and bottomed out in late 2025.

Looking at the entire year’s crypto market trend, BTC’s correlation with traditional financial markets has significantly increased. The improvement of regulatory frameworks and the Fed’s policy pace are likely to remain key variables influencing BTC’s price trajectory in 2026.