Is the Bitcoin selling pressure about to end? K33: Long-term holders are exiting, entering the final stage, and institutional demand in 2026 holds a hidden turning point

Crypto Research and Brokerage Firm K33 Research指出，after two years of large-scale selling, long-term Bitcoin holders are nearing saturation in selling pressure. As early investors’ profit-taking pressure gradually diminishes, on-chain selling pressure is expected to ease significantly, potentially bringing a market turnaround.
(Background recap: Glassnode: Bitcoin weak volatility, major fluctuations imminent?)
(Additional context: 2025 Bitcoin forecast collectively wrong, why did institutions all miss?)

Crypto Research and Brokerage Firm K33 Research released its latest report on December 16, stating that long-term Bitcoin holders (Long-Term Holders, LTH) have nearly exhausted their selling pressure after two years of large-scale selling. As early investors’ profit-taking pressure weakens, on-chain selling pressure is expected to ease markedly, opening the door for a potential market shift.

Large-scale distribution by long-term holders reshapes Bitcoin ownership structure

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde analyzed in the report that since early 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years has been steadily declining, with approximately 1.6 million BTC (about $138 billion) reactivated and entering circulation. This is one of the largest long-term holder sell-off phases in Bitcoin history, with 2024 and 2025 ranking as the second and third largest years for long-term supply reactivation, only behind 2017.

However, unlike the 2017 period driven mainly by altcoin trading and ICO hype, this round of selling is characterized by long-term holders directly selling Bitcoin into deep liquidity pools. Correspondingly, institutional buy-in driven by US spot Bitcoin ETFs and strong corporate demand to include Bitcoin in balance sheets are supporting the market.

The report cites multiple large transactions as examples, including Galaxy Digital’s OTC trade of 80,000 BTC in July, a whale selling 24,000 BTC in August for Ethereum, and another holder selling about 11,000 BTC between October and November. K33 emphasizes that such large-scale activity among major holders is quite common and is one of the reasons Bitcoin’s performance relative to other assets remains weak in 2025.

K33 further points out that this year alone, approximately $300 billion worth of Bitcoin with holding periods over a year has been reactivated. Lunde states that the emergence of institutional liquidity has allowed early holders to realize multi-fold profits at six-figure prices, significantly reducing Bitcoin ownership concentration and establishing a new price reference for the large circulating supply.

Selling pressure nearing saturation, supply trend expected to reverse in 2026

Looking ahead, K33 is optimistic that selling pressure is nearing its end. Lunde notes, “20% of Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and we expect on-chain selling pressure to approach saturation.” He predicts that the current two-year supply of approximately 12.16 million BTC will cease its decline and rebound above current levels by the end of 2026. As early holders’ selling wanes, net buying demand will gradually emerge.

Additionally, the report mentions that quarter-end portfolio rebalancing operations could provide short-term support for Bitcoin. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often exhibits opposite trends at the start of a new quarter compared to the previous one. Due to the significant underperformance of Bitcoin in Q4 relative to other assets, institutional investors with fixed allocation targets may rebalance between late December and early January, bringing in capital similar to the market movement from late September to early October this year.

However, Lunde also cautions that historically, peaks in supply reactivation tend to occur near market tops rather than bottoms. Yet, this cycle is different: Bitcoin is accelerating its integration into mainstream financial systems through ETFs, wealth management platforms, and clearer regulatory frameworks, gaining broader institutional access. Once selling pressure from long-term holders diminishes, it will provide a more sustained demand foundation for Bitcoin.

Overall, K33’s report conveys a cautiously optimistic signal: while short-term OG coin holders’ selling pressure may still cause volatility, this structural pressure is nearing its end, and market focus is likely to shift toward emerging buy-in and institutional allocation demand.

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