MSCI rating adjustment may trigger a sell-off of crypto-related stocks, with the market facing a $15 billion pressure risk

The cryptocurrency market may be brewing new systemic risks. A recent industry report warns that if MSCI excludes companies whose balance sheets are primarily composed of digital assets from its index inclusion criteria, it could trigger selling pressure of up to $10 billion to $15 billion, further impacting the already pressured crypto market.

According to research published by BitcoinForCorporations, there are currently 39 companies being evaluated by MSCI, with a combined market capitalization of over $110 billion adjusted for circulating shares. If these companies are removed from the global investable indices, passive funds tracking these indices may be forced to reduce their holdings, with an estimated total capital outflow of approximately $11.6 billion. The selling impact could persist over the next three months.

Among them, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the single largest potential impact, accounting for about three-quarters of the affected companies’ total market value. JPMorgan analysts estimate that if Strategy loses index eligibility, it could face capital outflows of up to $2.8 billion, becoming the main source of potential selling in this round. Other evaluated companies include Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital Holdings, and Sharplink Gaming, among typical crypto concept stocks.

Currently, MSCI is re-evaluating its index methodology, with the core controversy centered on whether companies that hold digital assets as a major part of their balance sheets should continue to be included in the index system. The assessment was originally scheduled to be completed earlier but has now been postponed to January 15, 2026, for the final decision.

To mitigate potential impacts, Strategy has proactively engaged in discussions with MSCI. Chairman Michael Saylor confirmed that both parties are negotiating before the deadline, attempting to influence the final policy direction. Meanwhile, opposition within the industry to the proposal is growing. Several analysts believe that using only balance sheet structure as a screening criterion is too mechanical, which could lead to passive exclusion of companies even if their fundamentals, revenue, and operations remain unchanged.

Crypto asset management firms like Bitwise have also publicly expressed concerns, arguing that introducing subjective judgment into index rules would undermine the neutrality and transparency of the indices. Strategy CEO Phong Le pointed out that companies holding commodities like oil are not subject to similar treatment, indicating a clear inconsistency in standards.

Overall, MSCI’s rating adjustment has become an important potential variable affecting the crypto market. If the policy is implemented, related stocks and crypto asset prices could face phased selling pressure, and the market should pay close attention to the chain reaction triggered by index decisions.