Gate Research Institute: CPI Surge and Reversal | Options Selling Pressure and Risk-Aversion Sentiment Resonance

Cryptocurrency Asset Overview

BTC (-0.91% | Current price 85,356.6 USDT)

BTC has experienced a continuous pattern over the past two days of “failed to surge → rapid volume-driven decline → weak rebound at lows” in its market structure. In the past 24 hours, boosted by short-term sentiment uplift from CPI data, BTC briefly surged above $89,000; however, in the $89,000–$90,000 range, structural selling pressure was evident, followed by multiple large-bodied 1H candlesticks, causing the price to fall quickly. During the decline, coupled with short-term leveraged positions being liquidated and long stops being triggered, BTC dipped to $84,460. The current price is in a low-level technical correction phase after the decline, with limited rebound from the lows and no trend reversal signals yet. From a technical perspective, the moving averages still show a bearish alignment of MA5 < MA10 < MA30, and the short-term bearish structure has not been broken. Overall, BTC’s medium- to short-term trend remains dominated by range-bound consolidation, with the price likely testing the MA30 (around $86,000–$86,500) resistance repeatedly; if it cannot regain stability above this range, further downside is possible.

ETH (-0.2% | Current price 2,822.53 USDT)

ETH’s trend leans towards weakness, following and facing resistance within a range. Against the backdrop of a brief risk sentiment recovery driven by CPI data, ETH moved upward with the market, briefly approaching $3,000; however, this rally was more of a passive follow-up rebound and failed to establish a sustained trend. Subsequently, ETH experienced a relatively concentrated decline, with a low of $2,775; this decline has two characteristics: a faster descent pace and a continuous lower high during the rebound, indicating ETH remains in a weak rebound under trend suppression and has not broken out of the previous downtrend channel. From the moving average structure, short-term averages repeatedly hover below MA30, failing to form an effective turning point. Overall, ETH’s current issue is not about “oversold conditions,” but rather a lack of independent incremental narratives or capital drivers outside of BTC; in the medium to short term, $3,000 remains a key psychological resistance, with expected oscillation between $2,800–$3,000.

GT (-2.95% | Current price 9.85 USDT)

GT’s overall trend is weak, unable to follow major coins in an effective upward move. Currently, GT exhibits characteristics of a weak downward channel, with rebounds mostly being short-lived corrections and lacking sustainability. From the moving average perspective, the price remains below MA30, with short-term averages diverging downward, forming a clear trend suppression zone; the $10.00–$10.20 range has shifted from a previous consolidation zone to the current main resistance band. In the medium to short term, attention should be on whether GT can find enough support above $9.8 and halt its downward momentum.

Daily Gainers and Losers Tokens

In the past 24 hours, the overall crypto market has shown a synchronized pullback pattern, with risk appetite continuing to decline. From capital distribution, BTC fell about 1.4%, becoming the main pressure source in this correction; high-beta assets like SOL and XRP saw significantly amplified declines, indicating that during increased volatility, funds prefer to reduce risk exposure. Overall, the market is in a defensive mode actively reducing risk, awaiting new pricing signals, and may enter a phase of oscillation and digestion in the short term.

JELLYJELLY jelly-my-jelly (+45.19%, circulating market cap $131 million)

According to Gate data, JELLYJELLY is currently priced at $0.13, up over 45% in 24 hours. Jelly-My-Jelly (JELLYJELLY) is a meme coin based on Solana, launched early 2025 via pump.fun platform, relying on community hype and meme culture rather than strong utility features.

Recently, some established meme coins within the Solana ecosystem have been active, and JELLYJELLY benefited from capital rotation from other tokens (such as PIPPIN). Additionally, amid a poor market environment, JELLYJELLY appeared on the 24-hour gainers list on exchanges like Gate, further attracting attention and buying, which pushed its price higher.

NBLU NuriTopia (+39.45%, circulating market cap $5.57 million)

According to Gate data, NBLU is currently priced at $0.0025, up nearly 40% in 24 hours. NuriTopia (NBLU) is a blockchain-based metaverse social platform, offering core services including “FRIENDS & HANGOUTS,” virtual dating, NFT marketplace, health consulting, community clubs, virtual offices, etc. Users can create personalized avatars and pets, interact, produce content, trade, and earn rewards through participation.

The rise of NBLU may be related to speculation on low-market-cap tokens. NBLU is a long-term, low-morale small-cap project with no clear fundamental drivers; its volatility is mainly driven by leverage and chatroom hype under low liquidity. Historically, this token has experienced multiple sharp rises and falls, making it susceptible to manipulation.

IR AI Infrared (+24.65%, circulating market cap $54.82 million)

According to Gate data, IR is currently priced at $0.2589, up nearly 25% in 24 hours. Infrared Finance (IR) is a core infrastructure protocol based on Berachain blockchain, focusing on Berachain’s Proof of Liquidity mechanism. It is the first system to unify liquidity staking, validator infrastructure, and automated yield vaults, forming the backbone of Berachain’s yield economy.

IR’s rise is mainly driven by new token listings and exchange activities. Recently, IR was listed on major exchanges like Gate, which launched activities such as CandyBomb and trading competitions, attracting many users to trade and mine, further amplifying trading volume and price. IR is typical of a new project’s high-opening stage, but its future depends on the development of the Berachain ecosystem.

Hotspot Analysis

$23 billion options expiring soon pose the biggest short-term risk for BTC

Approximately $23 billion worth of BTC options contracts are set to expire on December 26, 2025 (next Friday), accounting for over half of the total open interest, representing a huge scale. As expiration approaches, volatility often amplifies because traders need to adjust their positions before expiry, especially when many contracts expire simultaneously. Meanwhile, the 30-day implied volatility has rebounded to nearly 45%; the options skew is about -5%, indicating higher demand for put options, which makes downside protection more expensive. This situation is not only short-term; similar conditions are expected in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, suggesting traders are heavily buying puts to hedge downside risk, with put positions dominating the market.

It’s worth noting that BTC has fallen about 30% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in early October 2025, and this quarter may see the worst quarterly performance since the Terra/LUNA collapse in Q2 2022.

Lido DAO accelerates diversification, applying for $60 million ecosystem budget

Lido DAO is applying for a total of $60 million in ecosystem funding in 2026, aiming to implement the third phase of the GOOSE (Guided Open Objective Setting Exercise) strategic plan, transforming Lido from a single Ethereum LST protocol into a multi-product innovation organization.

Key focuses include expanding product lines, developing new revenue streams, and enhancing long-term protocol resilience, moving beyond its core ETH staking business—currently controlling nearly 24% of Ethereum staked supply, ranking second in DeFi TVL after Aave. This move aims to diversify to mitigate potential risks, such as previous staking centralization leading to widespread community criticism and debate, while continuing the GOOSE/reGOOSE objectives (e.g., staking router development, dual governance, L2 integration, restaking support).

The budget requires approval via LDO holder voting. If approved, it will provide continuous funding for Lido contributors, the foundation, and related projects to support R&D, audits, deployment, and new product development. Community feedback has been relatively calm so far, with no major disputes. Overall, this strategic shift from LST dominance to broader DeFi ecosystem expansion marks Lido’s accelerated diversification and growth plan in 2026. However, future concerns include fund allocation efficiency and execution risks.

JPMorgan: predicts total stablecoin market cap will reach $500–600 billion by 2028

JPMorgan analysts recently reaffirmed a conservative outlook for the stablecoin market, estimating that by 2028, the total market cap will not reach $1 trillion, but rather around $500–$600 billion. This forecast is significantly lower than other institutions’ optimistic projections, such as Citi’s baseline of $1.9 trillion by 2030 or $4 trillion in a bull market; Standard Chartered expects $2 trillion by 2028.

Since the beginning of this year, the stablecoin market has grown by about $100 billion, surpassing $300 billion in total market cap, mainly driven by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Demand remains highly concentrated in crypto-native activities, including trading, derivatives collateral, DeFi lending, and idle funds management, rather than broad payment adoption.

JPMorgan analysts believe that stablecoin growth will likely stay in sync with the overall crypto market cap, maintaining a stable proportion of around 7–8%. Limiting factors include increased circulation velocity of stablecoins in payment systems, competition from bank-tokenized deposits and CBDCs, regulatory preferences for non-transferable designs to maintain financial stability, and the reinforcement of traditional systems like SWIFT through blockchain experiments. Stablecoin growth is unlikely to diverge significantly from the crypto ecosystem; payment expansion may not lead to explosive market cap increases, and bank-led tokenization initiatives could further squeeze the private stablecoin space.
References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Investing, https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices
• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-18/bitcoin-volatility-rises-ahead-of-23-billion-options-expiration?srnd=phx-crypto
• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/383236/jpmorgan-stablecoin-market-projections?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

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