Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 0.75%, but Bitcoin remains unusually calm: risk signal or new round of opportunity?

On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, reaching a nearly 30-year high and marking Japan’s official acceleration in exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. However, in stark contrast to this historic rate hike, Bitcoin’s price was barely affected, fluctuating slightly and stabilizing around $87,000, drawing widespread market attention.

Historically, when the Bank of Japan enters a tightening cycle, it often triggers the unwinding of yen carry trades, leading to a contraction in global liquidity. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market typically experience a significant correction of 20%—30%. But this time, the market reaction has been calm, primarily because “expectations have been fully priced in.” Most traders had already factored in this rate hike, resulting in limited short-term impact.

What is truly worth vigilance is not the rate hike itself but the future policy path of the Bank of Japan. Governor Ueda Fumio’s forward-looking guidance has become a focal point. The market generally expects that if inflation and wage growth persist, Japan’s policy rate could rise to 1% or even higher before 2026, gradually weakening the yen’s position as a low-cost financing currency globally.

Analysts believe that Bitcoin remaining stable amid rate hikes actually signals a bullish bias. Some institutions suggest that this “not falling but stabilizing” performance may indicate that selling pressure has been preemptively released, providing a healthier entry zone for medium- and long-term funds. However, altcoins are more sensitive to liquidity changes. If Japan continues to raise rates and global liquidity tightens further, small- and mid-cap tokens in risk assets could still face significant pressure.

Overall, Bitcoin’s resilience reflects an increased market maturity. In the short term, the impact of Japan’s rate hike is limited; in the medium to long term, continued attention should be paid to its subsequent tightening pace and the rebalancing of the global liquidity environment. This “unusual calm” market may well be the prelude to the next phase of trend development.