Pi Network community split! Optimists call for $100, pessimists accuse scam

Pi Network team has been very active recently, launching updates for the testnet DEX, domain verification mechanisms, and holiday shopping season initiatives. However, the native token PI has yet to see a decisive breakout, with continuous declines on weekly and monthly charts. The community is severely divided on the outlook, with some users predicting the price will reach an astonishing $100 target, while others criticize the token for hype far exceeding execution.

1.2 million tokens moved out to exchanges—dual interpretations

(Source: PiScan)

In the past 24 hours, over 1.2 million PI tokens have been transferred from centralized platforms, accounting for approximately 0.28% of the total exchange holdings (428 million tokens). In technical analysis, tokens moving from exchanges to self-custody are often seen as bullish signals, as they indicate holders are shifting to long-term holding rather than short-term trading, reducing selling pressure.

As of writing, about 428 million PI are held on exchanges, with more than half stored on Gate.io. Bitget ranks second, holding 147.6 million tokens. This high concentration of exchange holdings makes Gate.io’s position a market indicator. If Gate.io’s PI holdings continue to decline, it suggests users are withdrawing to personal wallets, which is usually a bullish sign.

However, a pessimistic interpretation sees this outflow as a sign of waning confidence in Pi Network. When investors become thoroughly disappointed in a project, they may choose to transfer tokens out of exchanges into cold wallets “out of sight, out of mind,” rather than actively trading. This “lock-up” is not due to optimism but because prices are too low to sell, yet they don’t want to keep watching. From this perspective, exchange outflows may reflect stagnation.

Additionally, upcoming token unlocks are smaller than those in recent months. Nearly 165 million tokens will be released in the next 30 days, averaging about 5.5 million per day. While still substantial (potentially exerting about $1 million daily selling pressure at current prices), this is a significant reduction compared to previous months when unlocks reached tens of millions daily. If the 1.2 million tokens flowing out are long-term holders’ lock-ins, they may partially offset the daily unlock selling pressure of 5.5 million.

Three major contradictions in Pi Network’s current market structure

Exchange outflows vs unlock selling pressure: 1.2 million tokens outflow in 24 hours, but 165 million tokens unlocking in 30 days, still exerting huge supply pressure

Technical updates vs price decline: The team frequently releases updates, yet prices keep falling, indicating market rejection

Optimistic forecasts vs bleak reality: Some fans shout $100, but the price has plummeted 93% from $0.93 to $0.20

The stark contrast between the $100 dream and $0.20 reality

Some die-hard fans of PI remain optimistic, continuously issuing bullish predictions. Recently, a user on the X forum, Web3_Vibes, stated that once the price rebounds from the support near $0.192, it could continue upward. Others predict PI will reach an astonishing $100 target or even higher. Of course, given current conditions, this seems quite absurd and even impossible.

Rising from $0.20 to $100 implies a 500-fold increase. This would require market capitalization to jump from the current approximately $2 billion (assuming 10 billion tokens in circulation) to $1 trillion. This market cap would surpass current Ethereum and rank just below Bitcoin. To achieve such a valuation, Pi Network would need to become one of the world’s most important blockchains, with hundreds of millions of active users and trillions of dollars in real-world applications.

Optimists often base their reasoning on “a large user base.” Pi Network claims to have tens of millions of registered users. If these users actually start using PI for payments and transactions, demand could explode. However, there is a huge gap between registered and active users. How many are actually using PI in daily life? How many merchants accept PI payments? These data are always opaque.

Community disappointment and doubts about execution explode

Although optimism persists, many industry insiders are disappointed with PI’s poor performance. A Pi Network user stated that the project was initially an “ambitious idea,” but later turned into “years of repeatedly pressing buttons, unclear timelines, constantly changing goals, and endless ‘coming soon’ updates.”

They added: “Currently, there is a lack of practical solutions, market confidence is low, and there is little transparency about the project’s future development. A strong community needs real progress, not endless waiting and repeated promises.” This criticism highlights Pi Network’s core problem: promising too much but delivering too little.

Pi Update users also hold a pessimistic view. They claim the token “is starting to look like a typical case of hype far exceeding execution,” and add that holders are still waiting for basic improvements such as a clear token economic model, genuine liquidity, and applications beyond the native ecosystem. These three “still waiting” points are highly damaging because they are fundamental elements of any blockchain project.

A clear token economic model means investors can understand the token’s supply, distribution, unlock schedule, and value capture mechanisms. Pi Network is extremely vague in this regard, with unlocking schedules constantly adjusted, total supply long-term unclear, and value capture mechanisms lacking persuasiveness. Genuine liquidity means being listed on mainstream exchanges with sufficient trading depth. Currently, PI is only traded on a few exchanges like Gate.io and Bitget, with limited depth, and large trades cause severe slippage.

The most critical missing element is applications beyond the native ecosystem. Pi Network emphasizes its ecosystem applications and merchants, but actual usage is very low. The outside world almost does not recognize PI’s value—no DeFi protocols integrate PI, no cross-chain bridges to mainstream chains, no institutional investors holding PI. This closed ecosystem’s biggest problem is the lack of external capital inflow; prices are entirely determined by internal supply and demand. When supply (unlocks) continues to increase and demand (actual applications) stagnates, price declines are inevitable.

X users summarize: “Before PI achieves independent price discovery and real-world applications, it’s more like a project wandering between a hidden gem and a gap between vision and feasibility.” Although this assessment is sharp, it may be closer to the truth. The fuzzy promises of the core team and the community’s enthusiasm cannot unleash the project’s full potential, which is the fundamental dilemma Pi Network faces today.

The life-and-death test of the $0.192 support level

On the technical side, Pi Network is currently hovering around $0.20, with a key support at $0.192. User Web3_Vibes on the X forum said that once the price rebounds from the support near $0.192, it could continue upward. This judgment has some technical basis, as $0.192 is a recent low tested multiple times; holding this level could form a double bottom or triple bottom pattern.

However, holding the support is only the first step. The real challenge is breaking through resistance levels. PI needs to break above $0.25 to reverse the downtrend, and further above $0.30 to confirm a trend reversal. Moving from $0.20 to $0.30 requires a 50% increase, which is extremely difficult in the current environment lacking catalysts.

The upcoming unlocking of nearly 165 million tokens in 30 days is a Damocles’ sword hanging overhead. With an average daily unlock of about 5.5 million tokens, at the current $0.20 price, this represents a potential daily sell pressure of approximately $1.1 million. If trading volume cannot absorb this pressure, the price may continue to decline.

For PI holders, this is a painful waiting period. Optimists hope the team will release major positive news, such as listing on mainstream exchanges or launching killer applications. Pessimists believe the project has already failed and suggest cutting losses early. Neutral observers may adopt a wait-and-see approach, waiting for clear trend signals before acting. From a risk management perspective, if PI breaks below the $0.192 support, it should be seen as a clear sign of trend deterioration, with the probability of further decline to $0.15 or even lower increasing significantly.

The future of Pi Network depends on whether the team can turn “ambitious ideas” into “practical solutions.” Currently, time is not on PI’s side. Continuous token unlocks, community patience exhaustion, and market confidence erosion are accumulating negatives. Unless there is a major catalyst, $0.20 may not be the bottom but a midpoint before the next wave of decline.