Toncoin (TON) remains steady at $1.45, but downside risk still exists.

Toncoin (TON) fluctuated sideways around the 1.45 USD level on Friday, after dropping to the lowest point in two months in the previous session. Selling pressure has not yet cooled, even though xStocks has officially launched on the TON platform — a development expected to strengthen the network’s fundamentals and long-term prospects. Technically, momentum indicators continue to weaken, indicating that the risk of a downward correction still exists.

xStocks launches on TON, bringing tokenized US stocks directly to user wallets

xStocks officially launched on the TON platform on Thursday, opening up the possibility of directly bringing tokenized US stocks into user wallets. As a result, shares of leading corporations like Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, and hundreds of other stocks can now be traded directly within TON Wallet, Tonkeeper, and MyTONWallet without the need for separate trading apps, traditional brokerage accounts, or any geographical barriers.

“The full on-chain deployment of xStocks marks a significant step forward in applying real-world assets on TON. Over a billion users can now hold and trade tokenized US stocks as easily as sending a message on Telegram — instantly, globally, and fully in a self-custody mechanism,” emphasized the TON Foundation in an official blog post.

In the long term, this move is viewed as a positive factor for Toncoin, as it helps expand practical utility, promotes on-chain activity, and strengthens ecosystem adoption. However, in the short term, the market has not yet reflected this positive impact, as TON continues to face correction pressure, declining nearly 3% during the day and dropping to a two-month low around 1.42 USD.

Derivative data indicates a negative outlook for Toncoin

In the derivatives market, current data continues to support a negative scenario for Toncoin. According to the funding rate index from Coinglass, the number of traders betting on a decline in TON is outweighing those expecting a price recovery.

Specifically, the funding rate fell into negative territory on Friday, down to -0.011%, indicating that the short (Short) positions are dominant and paying fees to the long (Long) positions. Historically, each time TON’s funding rate turns negative, it is often accompanied by sharp price corrections.

Toncoin funding rate | Source: Coinglass Additionally, the long-to-short ratio for Toncoin was recorded at 0.36 on Friday — the highest in a month. Maintaining this ratio below 1 reflects increasingly widespread bearish sentiment, with most traders leaning toward further price declines.

Long-to-short ratio of Toncoin | Source: Coinglass## Price forecast for Toncoin: TON hits two-month bottom

Toncoin’s price was strongly rejected at the upper trendline of the falling wedge pattern on December 10, leading to a nearly 14% correction, dropping to 1.42 USD — the lowest in two months — on Thursday. On Friday, TON only recovered slightly and fluctuated around the 1.45 USD level, indicating that selling pressure has not yet eased.

In a continued bearish scenario, TON’s price risks extending its decline toward the next support zone around 1.31 USD.

Daily TON/USDT chart | Source: TradingView From a technical perspective, the daily RSI is at 34, significantly below the neutral 50 level, reflecting dominant bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has formed a bearish cross since Wednesday, further reinforcing the short-term negative outlook.

Conversely, if buying interest returns and Toncoin recovers, the price could extend its upward move to test the 50-day EMA, currently around 1.76 USD.