Lighter is about to launch on Coinbase. Is it too late to issue tokens now?

Summary

Recently, Lighter has become a focal point in discussions about the Perp DEX sector. Lighter is actively traded, its points system operates stably, and Coinbase has included it in its listing roadmap; however, the token issuance timing and specific details remain unclear, leading to market expectations being advanced prematurely while key information lags behind, sparking controversy. Unlike projects that rely solely on incentives for growth, Lighter attracts a large number of long-term users through an efficient matching mechanism and a good trading experience, demonstrating strong product value. This has caused the market to start valuing it based on mature asset standards, amplifying disagreements. The entire Perp DEX sector is at a critical stage of transitioning from “incentive-driven” to “intrinsic value-based” development. How to design tokens that effectively motivate users while reasonably reflecting the platform’s real value has become a common industry challenge. Past projects’ buyback and incentive strategies each have their focus but generally show caution and balance. Lighter’s current restraint on token pace and functionality reflects a rethinking of token positioning within the sector. Whether tokens are necessary and how to find a reasonable balance between incentives and value-bearing remains a core issue to be addressed. Observing Lighter’s development path helps understand the future token design logic and sustainable development direction of the entire Perp DEX ecosystem.

1. Where does the controversy around Lighter come from: the mismatch between expectations and information lag

Recently, discussions about Lighter have surged significantly. On one hand, project-level progress continues to send positive signals: on December 13, Coinbase announced it would add Lighter to its listing roadmap; simultaneously, platform trading volume and points-related data have expanded, making it one of the most watched projects in the Perp DEX sector.

However, alongside data and exposure growth, there is uncertainty around TGE and airdrop timing. The core controversy in the market is not whether Lighter will issue tokens, but that market expectations have already been significantly advanced while key information determining valuation remains unconfirmed. The community has long held expectations that Lighter might conduct TGE in December this year, but the official has not clarified specific timing, rules, or token distribution methods.

Mechanically, Lighter’s points system has entered a stable operational phase. Users can earn points by depositing funds into the LLP (Lighter Liquidity Provider) public pool and participating in contract trading. Currently, Season 2 is underway, with the official setting a relatively fixed points distribution rhythm based on trading activity, with provisions for dynamic rule adjustments. However, to date, the official has not disclosed how points will relate to future tokens or TGE, including exchange ratios, distribution structures, or comprehensive Tokenomics design.

In actual participation, although the official has not provided a final answer, users generally regard points as an important reference for potential future gains. As participation scales up, this expectation is further reinforced. According to official data, the current Lighter points pool has a TVL of approximately $690 million, indicating that this system already supports a substantial amount of real funds and trading activity. Against this backdrop, the uncertainty around token issuance timing and rules can easily be magnified into uncertainty about potential returns, directly reflected in divergent market price forecasts and participant sentiment.

Figure 1. Lighter points system. Source: https://app.lighter.xyz/public-pools/281474976710654

From prediction market Polymarket data, the market has not formed a consensus on the timing of the Lighter airdrop. For example, the probability of “Lighter airdrops on December 29” is about 28%, while “no airdrop in 2025” is about 33%, with probabilities for other dates more dispersed. This structure indicates that the market does not treat the airdrop as a certain event but is pricing multiple scenarios in parallel.

Figure 2. The prediction on Polymarket for when the Lighter airdrop will be. Source: https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-lighter-airdrop-be?tid=1766026269827

In forecasts about valuation after token launch, the market tends to be optimistic that “FDV exceeds $1 billion on the day after launch,” but expectations for higher valuation ranges are more converged. Overall, the market’s attitude toward Lighter is not blindly optimistic but involves early risk pricing amid unresolved uncertainty.

Figure 3. The prediction on Polymarket for Lighter’s market cap (FDV) one day after launch. Source: https://polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch?tid=1766026452011

Longer-term, community opinions on Lighter’s business model and token design are gradually diverging. Some believe that Lighter is currently more focused on the trading product itself, with limited staking, governance, or richer ecological layers. If future token functions do not form a clear value loop with platform trading activity, user activity may decline significantly after TGE and airdrop. This discussion does not deny project progress but reflects a rising concern for long-term sustainability as the Perp DEX sector matures.

2. Early pricing under high exposure: Why is Lighter regarded as a “quasi-asset”

Over the past year, many on-chain Perp DEX projects have emerged, but few have sustained visibility in the market. Unlike projects that rely on high-intensity incentives to maintain data, Lighter has been placed in a high-exposure position from the start. Coinbase’s launch of the super app Base integrated Lighter’s official page, allowing users to discover and use the product directly within Coinbase scenarios. This positioning exposes it to mainstream trading contexts, shifting market judgment from “whether the mechanism can run” to “whether it is worth long-term pricing.”

In this process, Lighter has not yet provided a complete token narrative, but its trading data and engagement have rapidly expanded. This combination has led the market to start including it in valuation and cross-project comparison discussions even before all key information is available.

More importantly, Lighter’s emergence coincides with a turning point in the overall narrative of the Perp DEX sector. Industry focus is shifting from early emphasis on mechanism and architecture innovation to a more pragmatic question: whether sustainable, non-incentive-driven real trading demand has appeared. In this context, as long as a project proves “people are actually using it,” even if its business model and token value capture are not yet fully complete, the market tends to preemptively treat it as a “quasi-asset.”

Therefore, the current controversy around Lighter is less about project pacing and more about a structural mismatch between market expectations and the project’s stage: when the market begins to evaluate a product still in development as if it were a mature asset, disagreements naturally grow.

3. Without TGE, does Lighter truly demonstrate product value?

If we temporarily set aside expectations for TGE and airdrops, whether Lighter still holds ongoing discussion value is key to judging whether this project is worth attention.

Based on disclosed data and actual trading behavior, Lighter shows several critical signals that are not easy to find. First, in perpetual contract trading, Lighter has already handled a substantial volume. According to DefiLlama, as of December 18, its trading volume over the past 30 days is about $256.27 billion, with a platform TVL of $1.457 billion, resulting in a trading volume / TVL ratio of approximately 175.88. For comparison, Hyperliquid and Aster’s ratios in the same period are about 49.16 (203.84 billion USD / 4.146 billion USD) and 169.6 (221 billion USD / 1.303 billion USD). The trading volume / TVL ratio reflects the turnover intensity of locked capital within a cycle; higher ratios typically indicate more frequent rolling of funds and high-frequency, incentive-driven trading. From this perspective, Lighter and Aster both show high turnover characteristics, indicating active trading, though some of this may be amplified by incentive mechanisms; Hyperliquid’s structure leans more toward capital accumulation and relatively stable risk exposure.

In this timeframe, Lighter’s perpetual trading volume is among the highest in the sector, demonstrating strong competitiveness in matching efficiency and system capacity. It’s important to note that current trading activity may still be influenced by incentives and market expectations rather than natural demand, but the ability to sustain such volume in a high-frequency, high-leverage environment already indicates a significant technical and product threshold, laying a foundation for future verification of genuine demand sustainability.

Figure 4. Lighter data. Source: https://defillama.com/protocol/lighter?perpVolume=true&tvl=false

Second, from the product structure, Lighter’s hybrid order book matching model supports continuous user engagement through execution efficiency, slippage control, and trading feedback. This means it is not just a one-time trial product but has been incorporated into some traders’ long-term trading paths. Moreover, the exposure from integrating the official Base app page is not just superficial; current observable trading and activity data show that at least some traffic has transitioned from “exposure” to “behavior.” This distinguishes Lighter from many Perp DEX projects still at the narrative and expectation stage.

Because these key steps have been successfully implemented, the market demands higher standards from Lighter. When a project proves real usage value, the question shifts from “whether there is a token” to “whether the token can reasonably support and amplify existing value.”

4. After Perp DEX is operational, how can tokens be designed?

Following Hyperliquid, Aster, and others, the Perp DEX sector is reaching a similar transitional node: when the trading product itself is validated, in what way should the token “reasonably exist”?

Past projects have explored different directions. For example, Hyperliquid’s token design does not focus solely on governance or incentives but centers on how to support the protocol’s real income. According to official disclosures and third-party data, the platform uses most of the fees (over 90%) generated by perpetual contracts and other activities to buy back HYPE tokens on the secondary market, supporting the token supply through burning or removal from circulation. As trading volume and fee scale grow, buyback intensity increases, transmitting the protocol’s operational results to the token layer and forming a relatively clear value loop. This path requires a straightforward fundamental premise: only when the platform can generate sufficient, stable real trading income over the long term can buyback mechanisms sustain; if activity declines, token value support will weaken.

In contrast, Aster initially expanded user base and trading activity through large-scale airdrops and multi-stage incentives. Its official Tokenomics shows about 53.5% of total ASTER supply allocated to airdrops, trading incentives, and community rewards to bootstrap liquidity. For long-term value, Aster introduced phased buyback and burn mechanisms, with about half of the repurchased tokens permanently burned and the rest locked for future incentives. Buyback funds mainly come from protocol fees and the project treasury, not solely from protocol income. Unlike Hyperliquid’s continuous fee-based buybacks, Aster’s buybacks are more aimed at stabilizing expectations and adjusting supply and demand, with scale and pace not automatically expanding with fee income. This strategy helps boost early attention and participation but may face selling pressure if incentives weaken long-term, as trading demand may not be sustained.

Under practical constraints, token designs in the Perp DEX space generally show a “conscious restraint”: they are aware of the unsustainability of purely incentive-based tokens and cautious about the complexity and compliance costs of revenue-sharing tokens. Without a fully validated, scalable standard path, delaying commitments and retaining flexibility is a more rational choice.

5. Returning to Lighter: its “hesitation” may be part of the answer

If we step back from emotional discussions about “whether TGE will happen” or “when the airdrop occurs,” from a relatively calm perspective, Lighter’s current state is quite clear: it is not a project that relies solely on TGE for valuation, but it has yet to present a convincing, market-gradable token narrative.

From a product strategy standpoint, Lighter does not rapidly accumulate short-term data through high-frequency, overt subsidies but instead uses a points mechanism to tie incentives to real trading activity. This delayed reward approach mainly serves to continuously guide trading behavior rather than generate immediate volume. Lighter is using the already established trading volume, active users, and sustained growth data to buy the market’s time and patience. In a market environment highly accustomed to TGE as a milestone, this restraint can cause discomfort.

Because of this, disagreements around Lighter are gradually becoming more explicit. For short-term participants, the lack of a clear token schedule and yield expectations directly weaken motivation, increasing skepticism; for long-term traders, as long as product depth, matching efficiency, and trading experience remain advantageous, immediate token issuance does not alter their usage decisions. The mismatch in focus between these two groups causes the same project to be evaluated very differently from different angles, further amplifying market divergence.

From an industry perspective, the controversy surrounding Lighter has gone beyond “whether to issue tokens” and touches on the core question of token design for decentralized perpetual trading platforms: in a context where Perp DEXs have demonstrated real user and trading demand, is a token necessary? Should its core functions focus on incentives, governance, or more on capturing value and long-term ecosystem building?

This reflects that the entire sector is transitioning from “rapid growth + incentive-driven” to “sustainable value creation.” As a project scrutinized by the market, Lighter’s performance and token strategy will have a significant demonstration effect on the token economic models of the entire Perp DEX ecosystem. Regardless of its final token design and issuance pace, this ongoing discussion about token positioning will continue to influence future project designs and market expectations. For investors and researchers, observing Lighter’s path helps gain insight into how this sector can achieve the critical leap from “incentive-driven traffic” to “intrinsic value.”

References

1. Hyperliquid Diligence Report. Source: https://messari.io/research/deep-research-reports/hyperliquid-diligence-report-fdf9486f-d978-4a6f-980e-ccadc697b120

2. 10 Projects Account for 92% of Token Buyback Spend in 2025: https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/token-buybacks

3. Lighter points system: https://app.lighter.xyz/public-pools/281474976710654

4. The prediction on Polymarket for when the Lighter airdrop will be: https://polymarket.com/event/what-day-will-the-lighter-airdrop-be?tid=1766026269827

5. The prediction on Polymarket for Lighter’s market cap (FDV) one day after launch: https://polymarket.com/event/lighter-market-cap-fdv-one-day-after-launch?tid=1766026452011

6. Lighter data on Defillama. Source: https://defillama.com/protocol/lighter?perpVolume=true&tvl=false

7. Aster DEX burns 80 million tokens and unveils 2026 roadmap: Key insights and analysis: https://investx.fr/en/crypto-news/aster-dex-burns-80-million-tokens-unveils-2026-roadmap-key-insights-analysis/

8. Aster PERP-DEX Investment Memo: https://insights.blockbase.co/aster-perp-dex-investment-memo

9. Aster Updates ASTER Token Buyback and Airdrop to Boost Token Value: https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/149436