On December 21, news came that Sean Farrell, the cryptocurrency strategy head at Tom Lee's Fundstrat, responded on platform X regarding the “discrepancy between his market views and Tom Lee's views,” stating that the cautious perspective from the earlier half of the year reflected risk management rather than a complete bearish outlook. The current market pricing is nearly perfect, but risks still exist, including government shutdowns, trade fluctuations, uncertainties in artificial intelligence capital expenditures, and changes in the Fed chair, alongside tightening high-yield bond spreads and low cross-asset volatility. Recent capital flows have also shown divergence. The current benchmark judgment is that a rebound may occur at the beginning of the year, followed by another pullback in the first half, providing more attractive opportunities for year-end positioning. If the judgment is wrong, I would prefer to wait for confirmation signals. For investors following this outlook, I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new historical highs before the end of the year, thus ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter and smaller bear market.
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