Galaxy's Major Outlook: Bitcoin Soars to $250,000 in 2027, These Sectors Will Explode in 2026

Galaxy Research, a top global cryptocurrency asset management and research institution, recently released a 26-item report predicting the crypto market for 2026. The report notes that although the market will end 2025 with a pullback, Bitcoin's long-term outlook remains solid, with expectations to challenge the $250,000 mark by the end of 2027. In 2026, the market will focus on key trends such as stablecoin payments surpassing traditional systems, tokenized assets entering the mainstream collateral market, reconstruction of public chain value capture models, and the rise of AI-driven on-chain payments. At the same time, the report also conducted a thorough review of its 2025 predictions, revealing a complex landscape where institutional adoption coexists with market fluctuations.

Bitcoin 2026: Maturing in Chaos

The crypto market in 2025 resembles a roller coaster, with the frenzy at the beginning of the year replaced by a calm adjustment at the end of the year. After Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 on October 6, the price fell back to the $90,000 range due to multiple factors such as changes in macro expectations, leverage liquidation, and large whale sell-offs. Galaxy Research points out that this fluctuation has not hindered fundamental progress: real institutional adoption is happening and lays the groundwork for the “substantive activation” phase in 2026.

Regarding the Bitcoin price in 2026, the report candidly states that it is “too chaotic and difficult to predict,” but the possibility of reaching new highs still exists. A more definite viewpoint points to a longer cycle: Bitcoin is expected to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. This judgment is based on several core observations: the options market currently shows polarized price estimates for the end of 2026, with an implied equal probability of reaching $50,000 or $250,000, reflecting significant short-term uncertainty. However, signs such as the structural decline in Bitcoin volatility and the higher volatility premium of put options over call options (i.e., changes in the volatility smile curve) indicate that Bitcoin is evolving from a high-volatility growth asset to characteristics more akin to mature, traditional macro assets.

The report's main author, Alex Thorn, analyzes that regardless of whether the price of Bitcoin will test the 200-week moving average in the short term, the maturity of this asset class and the rate of institutional adoption are growing irreversibly. With increased institutional access, a shift towards accommodative monetary policy, and a pressing demand for non-US dollar hedging assets, Bitcoin is highly likely to follow in gold's footsteps and be widely adopted as a hedge against currency depreciation in the next two years. Therefore, 2026 could be a “dull” yet crucial year for Bitcoin to solidify its foundation.

The Evolution of Public Chains: The Battle for Value Capture and Vertical Integration

The competitive landscape between Layer 1 and Layer 2 will undergo profound changes in 2026, centered around the fundamental question of “where value is captured.” Galaxy predicts that at least one universal, operational Layer 1 blockchain will “embed” a revenue-generating application into its protocol layer, directing its value straight to the native Token. This marks a reflection on the “fat protocol” theory and further practice of the “fat application” theory. Successful cases like Hyperliquid embedding perpetual contract exchanges into the protocol are reshaping market expectations for the neutrality of public chains. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's recent call for “low-risk, economically meaningful DeFi to prove ETH value” also highlights the pressure faced by public chains.

Specifically for the ecosystem, the total market value of the internet capital market on Solana is expected to soar to $2 billion (currently about $750 million). This prediction is based on the maturation process of the on-chain economy of Solana shifting from meme-driven to real income-generating businesses. At the same time, the report anticipates that the proposal to reduce SOL's inflation rate, SIMD-0411, will not pass in 2026, with community consensus leaning towards prioritizing improvements in market microstructure. On the other hand, enterprise-level Layer 1 will transition from pilot projects to real settlement infrastructure. It is expected that at least one Fortune 500 bank, cloud service provider, or e-commerce platform will launch a branded chain, settling over $1 billion in real economic activities by 2026, and connecting to public DeFi through bridges. This will exacerbate the route division between neutral public chains and vertically integrated enterprise chains.

Key data evidence of the Fat App theory

Galaxy predicts that the ratio of application revenue to network revenue will double by 2026. As transactions, DeFi, wallets, and emerging consumer applications continue to dominate on-chain fee generation, value capture is rapidly shifting from the underlying infrastructure to the application layer. At the same time, the network layer is further narrowing the revenue base of the infrastructure layer by reducing MEV value loss and compressing fees. This trend will enable the “fat application” theory to continue outperforming the “fat protocol” theory, forcing public chains to rethink their economic models.

Stablecoin and Tokenization: The On-Chain “Vascular” of Mainstream Finance

The year 2026 will be a key year for stablecoins and asset tokenization to move from proof of concept to large-scale application. Galaxy has made a landmark prediction: the annual trading volume of stablecoins will surpass that of the U.S. Automated Clearing House (ACH) system. Currently, the trading volume of stablecoins has exceeded that of major credit card networks like Visa, reaching about half of the ACH system. With the related details of the U.S. GENIUS Act being implemented in early 2026, the growth in stablecoin supply is expected to surpass the historical average compound growth rate. Behind this is the inherent value of stablecoins as an efficient settlement tool, as they are becoming the core underlying “veins” of the global payment network.

Meanwhile, the stablecoins collaborating with TradFi will usher in a wave of integration. In 2025, many USD stablecoins will be launched in succession, but the market will struggle to support a large number of widely used options. Consumers and merchants will converge on one or two stablecoins with the widest acceptance. The strategies of giants like Goldman Sachs and PayPal have revealed the key to success: scalable distribution capability. On the asset side, it is expected that a major bank or brokerage will begin to accept tokenized equity as collateral. This marks the formal entry of tokenized assets from DeFi experiments and private chain pilots into the core business scenarios of mainstream finance. In addition, Galaxy predicts that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will provide some form of exemption relief under its “Innovation Exemption” program for the use of tokenized securities in DeFi, which will open the door to a legitimate, non-packaged securitization market on public chains.

Comparison of Key Data on Stablecoin Trading Scale

• Current stablecoin trading volume: has surpassed mainstream credit card networks such as Visa.
• Compared to the ACH system: has reached about 50% of the latter's transaction volume level.
• Historical CAGR: The supply of stablecoins maintains an annual compound growth rate of 30%-40%.
• 2026 Forecast: Trading volume will fully surpass the ACH system.

DeFi and Prediction Markets: Scale Expansion and Governance Experiments

The penetration rate of decentralized finance will reach new heights by 2026. Galaxy expects that by the end of 2026, decentralized exchanges will account for more than 25% of the total spot trading volume. Currently, the DEX share is about 15%-17%, with growth driven by access without KYC and a more economically efficient fee structure, which increasingly attracts users and market makers seeking lower friction and greater composability. In the lending market, the outstanding total of cryptocurrency collateralized loans will exceed $90 billion, and the dominance of DeFi protocols in this space will continue to rise.

The innovation of governance models is another major highlight. The report predicts that the assets of DAO treasuries managed entirely by “futarchy” (prediction market governance) will exceed 500 million USD. This is a mechanism for decision-making based on prediction markets, where DAO members vote by buying and selling tokens that represent different decision outcomes, with the final market price seen as a reflection of collective wisdom. Currently, approximately 47 million USD in assets are managed this way, with growth coming from the joint adoption of both new and existing DAOs. Additionally, the total market value of privacy coins is expected to exceed 100 billion USD by the end of 2026, reflecting a sharp increase in the demand for transaction privacy as more funds (especially institutional funds) go on-chain. The weekly trading volume of the prediction market platform Polymarket is expected to stabilize above 1.5 billion USD, making it one of the fastest-growing categories in the crypto market.

TradFi Accelerates Entry: ETF Expansion and IPO Wave

The participation of traditional financial institutions will unfold in a more three-dimensional and in-depth manner in 2026. On the investment product side, Galaxy predicts that the U.S. market will see an explosion: there will be more than 50 spot altcoin ETFs and another 50 other types of crypto ETFs (excluding spot single-coin products) listed. Following the approval of spot ETFs for Solana, XRP, and others in 2025, more mainstream assets will follow suit. At the same time, net inflows into U.S. spot crypto ETFs will exceed $50 billion, more than double the $23 billion in 2025, thanks to the lifting of restrictions by more large wealth platforms and the incremental demand brought by new products.

A more iconic development is that a major asset allocation platform will include Bitcoin in its standard model portfolio. This means Bitcoin will upgrade from an optional alternative investment to a strategic standard allocation asset, typically corresponding to a weight of 1%-2%, which will reach a massive amount of passive investment funds. Meanwhile, the crypto industry itself will also be more deeply integrated into traditional capital markets, with expectations that more than 15 crypto companies will go public through IPOs or uplist in the United States. As the regulatory environment eases, a number of blockchain companies that have completed large private financing (such as Chainalysis and FalconX) will seek to enter the public market. However, amidst the excitement, calmness is also needed: reports indicate that at least 5 digital asset treasury companies will be forced to sell assets, be acquired, or shut down due to unclear strategies and poor management, resulting in a brutal market reshuffle.

Policy and AI: Unpredictable Variables and Deterministic Trends

The intersection of policies and emerging technologies constitutes one of the most noteworthy variables to observe in 2026. Galaxy has made an insightful political prediction: some Democrats may adopt “de-banking” as a topic and thus develop a favorable view towards cryptocurrencies. The traditionally pro-crypto right and the skeptical left may undergo subtle shifts. If tightened regulations on financial activities such as remittances for immigrants lead to low-income groups being excluded from the traditional banking system, then cryptocurrencies, as a censorship-resistant financial network, may gain a reevaluation from parts of the left. This demonstrates that blockchain does not have a fixed political stance; its value depends on the political priorities of different eras and groups.

On the technical integration level, AI-driven payments following the x402 standard are expected to account for 30% of Base chain's daily transactions and 5% of Solana's non-voting transactions by 2026. What is the x402 standard? It is an on-chain payment protocol standard designed for AI agents, allowing AI agents to automatically discover, negotiate, and complete payments. With the enhancement of AI agent capabilities, the popularity of stablecoins, and the improvement of developer tools, such standardized payment primitives will become the core execution layer of AI-driven business. Base and Solana are expected to lead this trend due to their respective ecological advantages, while emerging payment-specific chains like Tempo and Arc may also grow rapidly. This marks the beginning of seamless integration of crypto infrastructure with the next generation of human-machine interaction and machine-machine interaction economy.