TD Cowen lowers the target price for Strategy to $440, citing pressure on Bitcoin yield prospects

BlockBeats News, January 15 — Investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the one-year target price for Bitcoin treasury company Strategy from $500 to $440, citing the company’s ongoing financing through common and preferred shares, which dilutes Bitcoin yields.

TD Cowen analysts expect Strategy to increase its Bitcoin holdings by approximately 155,000 BTC in fiscal year 2026 (up from the previous estimate of 90,000 BTC), but the higher pace of purchasing will mainly rely on equity financing, thereby reducing the “Bitcoin yield” (i.e., the increase in Bitcoin holdings per share). The analysts have lowered the expected Bitcoin yield for FY 2026 to 7.1%, significantly below the previous 8.8%, and well below the 22.8% in FY 2025.

During the recent Bitcoin price correction, Strategy continued to significantly increase its Bitcoin purchases. The company issued about 6.8 million common shares and 1.2 million STRC floating-rate preferred shares in the week ending January 11, raising approximately $1.25 billion, almost entirely used to purchase 13,627 BTC. TD Cowen pointed out that since the financing price was close to the book value, the Bitcoin yield generated from this move was limited, making it reasonable only if Bitcoin prices rise significantly.

Looking ahead, TD Cowen expects the Bitcoin yield to rebound to 8.1% in FY 2027, maintaining an optimistic outlook on long-term Bitcoin prices, with forecasts of approximately $177,000 by the end of 2026 and about $226,000 by the end of 2027.