Kalshi partners with brokerage firm Game Point Capital to enter the institutional sports risk hedging sector

Gavin Newsom Bans California Public Officials From Prediction Market Insider Trading

In brief California public officials are banned via executive order from using inside information to make money on prediction markets. The ban extends to state officials and appointees using information to help others from profiting, as well. The order follows continued scrutiny from

Insider information! Will Trump call for a ceasefire by the end of April?

The recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict have been escalating continuously. The U.S. 82nd Airborne Division has canceled the "Joint Readiness Training Center" rotation, the normally sea-lifted 82nd Combat Aviation Brigade is being airlifted, and blood supply reserves at U.S. military bases in the Middle East have increased by 500%. The largest overseas hospital of the U.S. Department of Defense—Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany—has suspended some civilian services. The last time this combination of actions occurred was just before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. In the midst of this tense atmosphere, Trump suddenly posted that there had been "very, very good and productive conversations" between the U.S. and Iran, and announced that the U.S. would pause military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. In the early hours of March 27, Beijing time, Trump posted again, stating that the pause would be extended until April 6. This objective fact contrasts with Trump’s

The next U.S. presidential "conservative primary": JD Vance wins with 53% over Marco Rubio's 35%.

At CPAC 2026, a conservative conference in the United States, Vice President JD Vance became the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee with 53% of the vote, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio placed second with 35%. During the conference, Trump was absent, and divisions within the party surfaced, particularly over disagreements regarding a war with Iran. The competition between Vance and Rubio is becoming increasingly evident, and Polymarket predictions indicate that their odds of securing the nomination are roughly similar.

Inside the Trump administration, there were discussions about seizing Halk Island.

The Trump administration has recently been wavering on its stance toward the war. The White House warned that if Iran does not abandon its nuclear ambitions, it could face a devastating strike, while also considering seizing Hark Island to counter the weapon threat. Market predictions show that in the short term, the odds that Iran will no longer control Hark Island are relatively low.

AI surpasses humans in prediction markets with super-fast processing speed.

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the prediction market by analyzing vast amounts of data in real-time, outperforming human capabilities. This leads to instant reactions to news and market trends, raising concerns about fairness and power concentration.