Gate News: XRP is currently fluctuating around $1.42, down approximately 8% this week. Technical charts show that XRP has formed a head and shoulders top pattern on the 12-hour chart. If the neckline is broken, the expected decline could reach 16%, with a target price of $1.15. The 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) have formed a death cross, accelerating the bearish trend.
ETF capital flows further confirm market weakness. Since the launch of the XRP ETF at the end of 2025, institutional funds have continued to flow in, but in March, a net outflow occurred for the first time, totaling about $30.12 million, indicating investor confidence is beginning to waver. The continuous inflow record from November 2025 to February 2026 has been broken, with a clear trend of institutions withdrawing.
On-chain data also shows the exchange supply ratio steadily rising. The exchange reserve share of a major CEX increased from 0.0255 in early February to about 0.0279, indicating more XRP is held on exchanges, preparing for potential selling. Both spot holders and ETF institutions could trigger selling pressure, with capital flows pointing to a bearish outlook.
The cost basis heatmap shows that the $1.37 to $1.40 range is a key support zone, with approximately 917 million XRP held by investors. If the $1.37 support is broken, it will activate the head and shoulders neckline, potentially triggering panic selling. If the 12-hour close is below the neckline, XRP’s initial target is $1.22, with a possible further decline to $1.15.
To reverse the bearish pattern, XRP needs to close above $1.46 on the 12-hour chart, returning to the right shoulder area; if the close exceeds $1.60, the head and shoulders pattern can be completely invalidated. Currently, the price is only about 3% below the neckline. Combined with ETF capital flows and on-chain data, XRP faces significant downside risk. Investors should monitor key support levels and market capital movements.
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