Oil prices return to $105, hitting a three-year high! Is Bitcoin facing the risk of another major drop?

Gate News message: International oil prices have recently surged higher. WTI crude oil has broken through the $105 mark, reaching the highest level in nearly three years. This key price level has triggered concerns in the market about Bitcoin’s price action, and some investors have begun to re-examine the potential link between oil prices and the crypto market.

Historical data show that when oil prices break through $105, it often overlaps with Bitcoin pullback phases multiple times. In June 2014, after geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed oil prices up to that level, Bitcoin fell by about 21% within roughly 10 weeks, and then went through a prolonged period of stagnation. During the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in March 2022, oil prices again rose above $105; Bitcoin pulled back by about 14% within a week, but then quickly recovered its losses.

In the same year in May, after the European Union proposed a ban on Russian oil, oil prices remained elevated, while Bitcoin suffered a sharp drop of about 27% in the short term and entered a bear market phase that lasted for months. In this phase, changes in market structure became even more complex, further heightening investors’ sensitivity to macro factors.

However, analysts note that there are clear limitations to attributing Bitcoin declines solely to oil prices crossing a specific threshold. The historical samples only include a small number of instances, so the statistical significance is limited. At the same time, behind each selloff, other key events are often layered in—for example, the Mt. Gox incident in 2014 and the Terra-Luna ecosystem collapse in 2022—whose systemic shocks affect the market more directly.

Against the current backdrop, U.S. President Trump’s remarks about Middle East energy policy have also, to some extent, driven oil-price volatility and affected the pricing of global risk assets. But from an asset-logic perspective, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional commodities is still dynamically changing.

In the short term, rising oil prices may indirectly pressure risk assets through inflation expectations and tighter liquidity. Whether this will trigger Bitcoin’s next round of deep adjustment still requires a comprehensive judgment that combines on-chain data, fund-flow direction, and the macro environment. (Cointelegraph)