International News
The probability of the Fed rate remaining unchanged in April is 99.5%, and the likelihood of a rate hike this year has increased to 14.7%
According to CME FedWatch: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April is 0.5%, unchanged — 99.5%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.0%, unchanged — 93.5%, and a 25 basis point increase — 0.5%. By December, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35.1% (the day before — 25.1), unchanged — 50.2% (the day before — 73), an increase — 14.7% (the day before — 1.9).
The Russian presidential aide stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia
Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov told Russian media that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russian ships. He also noted that the situation in the Middle East remains complex. Additionally, he mentioned that the US has not approached Russia with requests for mediation to resolve the situation in the Middle East. (CCTV News)
US Army attacked Iranian bridge, new strikes on infrastructure expected
According to Axios, on Thursday, U.S. military forces struck a key civilian infrastructure target in Iran for the first time, a few hours after President Trump’s threat to “push Iran back to the Stone Age.” The strike on the B-1 bridge near Tehran indicates an expansion of U.S. military targets and could mark the beginning of attacks on energy, hydroelectric, and transportation infrastructure. A Pentagon spokesperson said further strikes on bridges are possible. The bridge was targeted because Iranian armed forces used it to transport missiles and components from Tehran to the western part of the country. Components were transported in large boxes and containers, assembled at the launch site. The bridge was also used to supply the Iranian military in Tehran.
Iran attacked Oracle and Amazon data centers in the region
On the evening of April 2, the IRGC Navy command issued a statement about strikes on Oracle’s data

US Unemployment Data Comes in Below Expectations, Sending a Balancing Signal to Markets
The latest US labor market data revealed an unemployment rate of 4.3%, while market expectations were at 4.4%. Although limited, the data came in below expectations, indicating that the labor market remains relatively resilient.
The unemployment rate is considered one of the most critical indicators of economic activity. The lower-than-expected data suggests that labor demand remains strong and that the economic slowdown is progressing in a controlled manner. This is interpreted as limiting the risk of a sudden contraction, particularly in terms of growth.
On the other hand, the continued strength of the labor market has a dual effect on inflation dynamics. Maintaining high levels of employment supports consumer demand, while continued wage pressures may make it difficult for inflation to decline at the desired pace.
At this point, the data is critically important for the direction of Federal Reserve policies. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate may cause the Fed to be more cautious about cutting interest rates. Because the strong employment structure indicates that economic activity is still supported and that premature easing of tight monetary policy could pose a risk.
From a financial market perspective, such data generally leads to complex pricing. On the one hand, the preservation of economic strength stands out as a positive factor for risky assets, while on the other hand, the possibility of interest rates remaining high for a longer period may put pressure on the market.
In conclusion, the lower-than-expected US unemployment data shows that the economy maintains its resilient structure and suggests that a cautious stance in the monetary policy outlook may continue. This data indicates that a balanced and data-driven process will continue in the markets, rather than a sudden change in direction.
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