A few thoughts on the Central Bank's latest "crackdown" meeting.

As an experienced old player since 94, rather than simple emotional venting, I would like to discuss the macro logic behind it and my personal survival line:

Here are my six thoughts:

1. The "trade-offs" that must be made.

Many people say that a one-size-fits-all approach is due to the government's ignorance of the potential of blockchain. On the surface, this seems to be the case, but from my interactions with some government think tanks, they are extremely aware of the efficiency of blockchain and are optimistic about its future. However, at the national level, there is the "impossible trinity" in economics concerning sovereign currencies, which means that in order to maintain financial sovereignty and exchange rate stability, it is necessary to sacrifice the free flow of capital.
I went to Yiwu some time ago, and many vendors there have started accepting u. This is a big deal, those who understand know.

2. The "Open Cards" of the China-US Game

The US SEC has approved the ETF, and the passage of the Genius Act aims to bring US dollar hegemony into the digital world through stablecoins. In the face of such a blatant scheme, it is inevitable for the government to establish a "firewall" for capital. As long as the Renminbi is still anchored to the US dollar and cannot independently occupy a certain market position, this wall will be difficult to dismantle.

3. There are also realities that must be faced.

Many people are actually unaware of this point. Many Ponzi schemes and funding schemes in the country are exploiting the influence of crypto to crazily launch scams. I know of many cases, such as Qian Zhimin, who was arrested in the UK with a case amount of 40 billion. If you ask me, this is just the tip of the iceberg. There are many others that have been safely settled, and there are countless smaller schemes with less influence.
From this perspective, maintaining social stability during an economic downturn is both realistic and necessary.

4. The threshold is the bonus

However, for an elderly person who has experienced two rounds of bull and bear markets, there is no need to be pessimistic about such a scene. On the contrary, the more tumultuous the situation, the greater the opportunities in the industry. For those true long-termists with real understanding, these policy thresholds precisely build our moat.

5. 【Necessary Red Lines to Be Aware Of】Try to avoid touching rebates.

This is what I want to emphasize the most: never do user acquisition or take rebates for trivial gains!
Especially in domestic media platforms for traffic acquisition.
Due to the presence of high leverage, exchanges and prediction markets are easily characterized as "online gambling" in a judicial context.
Trading on your own is a personal behavior.
Recruiting people to play and taking commissions may be accomplices in the "crime of operating a casino."
With the tightening of policies, this area may be hit (I certainly hope not), so control your hands, don't promote, and don't be an agent.

6. Believe in the resilience of the Chinese people

In the Web3 world, the vitality of the Chinese community is exceptionally strong. Even though policies have been suppressing them, if you look at the history of crypto, the Chinese community still holds significant weight. The current harsh winter is merely filtering out the true believers. For the Chinese, as long as there is a slight gap, we can grow into towering trees.

Written at the end:

Be a low-key "sovereign individual": physically onshore, mentally offshore, and avoid crossing the red line.