#美联储货币政策分析 Looking back at Bitcoin's historical cycles, we are once again standing at a crucial crossroads. The recent market volatility inevitably brings to mind the bull market peak of 2017 and the long adjustment that followed. But this time, things seem a bit different. The Federal Reserve’s softened stance and a 75% expectation for a rate cut in December are rare in history.

After a 30% pullback, Bitcoin has shown preliminary signs of stabilizing. The data from the derivatives market is particularly noteworthy—the year-end open interest for call options remains higher than for put options, concentrated between 85K and 200K. This optimism reminds me of the atmosphere at the end of 2020, when there were similarly bullish expectations.

However, we cannot ignore the current macro environment. U.S. retail data, core PCE, and other indicators will be released in the coming days, all of which could have a significant impact on the market. Looking back at previous cycles, macro factors often play a decisive role at critical moments.

Overall, while short-term downside risks seem to have eased somewhat, we still need to remain vigilant. History tells us that market sentiment can reverse in an instant. For veterans who have experienced multiple cycles, maintaining rationality and patience is more important than blind optimism. Let’s continue to monitor the data and wait for the market’s next move.