#美联储政策预期 Looking back at history, it’s not hard to see that the market always fluctuates in cycles. The current wave of AI hype inevitably reminds people of the rise and fall of past tech bubbles. Although the likelihood of the AI bubble bursting in the short term is low, overreliance on a single narrative is always risky.

From the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data in September to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish remarks, market sentiment has once again become tense. This brings to mind the eve of the dotcom bubble burst in 2000, when similar macro factors triggered profit-taking. However, the fundamentals of the current AI sector seem more solid, supported by strong cash flows from major tech companies.

The key is to be wary of the disconnect between industry development speed and market expectations. History tells us that when commercialization can’t keep up with investment enthusiasm, a moderate valuation correction is actually beneficial for long-term healthy growth. Future breakthroughs may come from the expansion of AI application scenarios, the decline in hardware costs, and a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

Having been through multiple bull and bear cycles, the most important thing is to stay clear-headed. Don’t blindly chase highs, but also don’t miss out on real opportunities. After all, every technological revolution reshapes the economic landscape—the key is to grasp the long-term trends within.