#美国经济与货币政策展望 Seeing this news, I can't help but recall the decades of witnessing the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. Although there have always been disagreements, a situation as evenly matched as this is truly rare. If a 6:6 tie really occurs, it would be the first time in the history of the Fed. This reminds me of the early days of Chairman Paul Volcker's tenure in 1979, when inflation was soaring and there were huge disagreements within the Fed about how to respond. In the end, Volcker implemented aggressive tightening policies, which triggered a severe recession but ultimately curbed inflation. Although today's situation is not as dire as it was then, the depth of disagreement is equally worrying. From historical experience, the Fed is usually able to reach a consensus at critical moments, and I hope this time will be no exception. However, if a tie really does occur, it could mean a policy deadlock, which would be a significant shock to the market. We still need to closely monitor the results of the December meeting and be prepared for all scenarios.