#美国经济指标 Looking back at history, I have witnessed too many shifts in Federal Reserve policy. This situation reminds me of the period after the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the job market was also fragile, and there was little inflationary pressure.

Now, both Daly and Waller support a rate cut in December, which is undoubtedly an important signal. They are concerned that the job market could suddenly deteriorate, and this concern is justified. History tells us that once the job market starts to decline, it often worsens rapidly.

However, we also need to be cautious about being overly optimistic. Market expectations for a December rate cut are already very high. If the Fed ultimately decides to hold steady, it could trigger intense volatility. I have experienced too many shocks caused by unmet market expectations.

Bitcoin breaking $89,000 and the Nasdaq surging 2.69% both reflect market optimism. But we must remember that market sentiment often overreacts. During the tech bubble in 2000 and the 2008 financial crisis, I saw similar optimism eventually collapse.

Overall, although the likelihood of a rate cut is increasing, we still need to remain cautious. History teaches us that economic turning points are often full of uncertainty. The most important thing now is to closely monitor upcoming economic data, as it will provide crucial guidance for the Fed's decisions.