Recent forecast market odds have shifted again. The likelihood of Federal Reserve Chair nominee Haskett taking office continues to rise—Polymarket surged to 54%, Kalshi also reached 51%, leaving Wosh and Waller behind.

If this guy really takes the helm, the Fed's approach might change dramatically:

First, the "dual mandate" balance will tilt. The Fed used to focus on both employment and inflation, but in the future, employment might take priority, pushing aside efforts to control inflation. The result would be a more accommodative monetary policy for a longer period, which is a clear signal.

Second, the independence of the central bank could be substantially weakened. Essentially, the White House might want the Fed to align with political cycles, which would naturally undermine the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation. Think about it—if a central bank is manipulated politically, how high can investors' trust really be?

From a market perspective, short-term sentiment might be quite bullish—everyone would bet on "rate cuts happening quickly and by a large margin," and risk assets including cryptocurrencies could be driven up by liquidity expectations. But the long-term risks are deeply hidden: the probabilities of fiscal deficit monetization and inflation expectations spiraling out of control both increase significantly. Once the dollar’s creditworthiness is compromised, investors will inevitably seek alternatives—things with fixed supply that are not subject to central bank manipulation become scarce.

Markets will become very emotional, with policy swings and inflation data fluctuations causing investors to switch frequently between "optimism" and "risk aversion." This uncertainty will continue to amplify.

But this also points to another path: if there is a system that doesn’t rely on central bank policies and is entirely driven by community consensus—such as those focused on education and public welfare—its stability won’t be hostage to macroeconomic policies. No matter how the Fed adjusts or how markets fluctuate, work based on tangible actions remains sustainable and verifiable. This is the true "anti-volatility" capability, especially valuable in noisy markets.