Recently, when tracking the market, from my perspective as someone who has been doing market analysis for many years, a detail has started to attract attention—the previous surge in spot demand that pushed the market higher for Bitcoin seems to have truly entered a recession phase. This is not a baseless guess; if you haven't yet realized the importance of this change, now is a good time to clarify the logic, because it directly affects the subsequent pace of capital allocation.

Let me provide some background first. This round of market cycle is essentially driven by three waves of solid spot buying. Spot demand may seem like just a trading indicator, but it is the key reference for measuring the true market heat, far more indicative than contract data. During the first two waves of demand, the market showed genuine strength—even when there was a pullback, it was quickly absorbed, which is a sign of real money entering the market.

The key shift began to appear in early October. The core demand indicators I monitor have clearly weakened—whether it’s the average daily volume of spot transactions or the pace of new capital entering, both have fallen below the average level of the past six months. My personal judgment is that this demand contraction is not just a short-term shakeout; there are deeper changes at play. Reviewing the composition of the three waves of demand: the first and second waves were mainly institutions and large players laying out at the bottom, while the third wave was a frenzy of retail investors following the trend. Now, retail enthusiasm has faded, and large players are in a wait-and-see mode, so the market naturally lacks the incremental momentum to continue.