#美联储降息 The Fed is almost certain to cut rates this week, with an 84% probability of a 25 BP cut, but the focus of this meeting is not on the rate cut itself, but on the policy divergence.

Five of the 12 voting members of the FOMC expressed opposition or skepticism towards further easing, a situation that has not occurred since 2019—looking at the on-chain funding situation, a strengthening of hawkish voices usually signals a marginal tightening of liquidity. The key lies in Powell's statement: if he emphasizes that the threshold for rate cuts in 2026 is very high, it means that the market should discount its expectations for subsequent easing.

What does this affect? It directly impacts the direction of long-term capital allocation. I have noticed that recently, large whales are adjusting their positions, and some institutional funds are waiting for the dot plot to confirm the true attitudes of the committee members for next year. The press conference at 3:30 AM on Thursday is worth keeping an eye on - whether that 30-minute speech can resolve expectations of policy divergence will determine the direction of short-term risk assets.

It is recommended to pay attention to two signals: first, the consensus change in the expected number of rate cuts in 2026 shown in the dot plot; second, the capital flow on major exchanges after the meeting - institutions usually vote with their feet.