#比特币市场动态 Bitcoin is competing for the 80,000 mark at the end of the year, and the logic behind the adjustments in institutional target prices is worth clarifying.
Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its target from $200,000 to $100,000 (with the target time changed to the end of 2025), primarily due to the adoption rate of institutional ETFs being lower than expected. This signal is critical—it indicates that the FOMO driven by retail investors is no longer sufficient to support high expectations, and true institutional inflow is needed to take over.
In line with Ansem's December 80,000 t

#比特币市场周期与价格 The BTC balance on the trading platform has fallen to 2.936 million coins, setting a new low for the cycle. This signal is worth following. Compared to history, the last time it reached this level was after the FTX collapse in December 2022, and the market subsequently entered a recovery phase.
From a structural perspective, the current balance decline is mainly due to whales continuously withdrawing funds on-chain—behaviors from large holders with positions exceeding 1 million and 10 million USD are consistent, as they are making on-chain reserves rather than seeking to sell. In

#美国经济数据 The target GDP growth rate for the United States is 3%. What is worth following behind this data is the actual flow signals of funds. Optimistic fiscal expectations usually drive up the valuations of risk assets, but the key is whether this growth rate can be sustained — it depends on the real performance of corporate profit growth, employment data, and consumer spending.
From an on-chain perspective, positive macro expectations often trigger adjustments in institutional fund allocations. It is recommended to closely track the inflow and outflow of large stablecoins and the movements

#比特币价格走势 James Wynn's alert is worth following, but it needs to be interpreted rationally. Looking at his historical prediction record—he issued short orders twice in November, expecting a fall to $67,000, which the actual trend has not reached; recently he closed his short order and turned bullish, expecting a rebound to $97,000-$103,000 before falling again to $46,618.
The problem with this type of prediction is that the amplitude estimate is highly deviated and the time window is vague. From the on-chain data, the key is to observe the movements of whale addresses and the flow of large

#聪明钱与加密富豪交易行为 Saylor released Tracker information again, which according to historical patterns is a precursor signal for increasing holdings. Looking at the data—MicroStrategy currently has holdings of 650,000 BTC, with a total value of $48.38 billion, and unrealized gains of 19.3%, approximately $9.35 billion.
The key lies in their average holding price of $74,436. If new positions are indeed added, it means continuing to increase at the current price level, indicating that smart money's judgment on the subsequent market trend has not changed. Large purchases by such institutions often

#美联储政策走向 The Fed's interest rate cut this week is basically a done deal, with Polymarket data showing a 93% probability for a rate cut in December, but the key signal is in January — the probability of a rate cut is only 27%, while the probability of a pause rises to 68%.
From the perspective of on-chain liquidity, this is an important policy juncture. Powell's wording this week will directly impact market expectations—Deutsche Bank expects him to emphasize that the threshold for interest rate cuts in early 2026 is very high, which means that the easing window may close in the short t

#美联储政策 The issuance of US short-term Treasury bonds has reached a dangerous level. In the past 12 months, T-Bills issued have reached $25.4 trillion, accounting for 69.4% of total Treasury issuance—this ratio is close to the historical high.
The issue behind the data is clear: the U.S. government is using short-term debt with a maturity of a few months to roll over long-term debt, which poses a typical maturity mismatch risk. Once the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate hikes due to inflation, the cost of interest will rise sharply.
From an on-chain perspective, this macro risk will gradual

#比特币价格走势 Bernstein's report has several details worth following. First, the judgment of breaking the 4-year cycle itself is crucial—historical patterns being broken often indicate a fundamental change in market structure, and the involvement of institutional funds has indeed altered the traditional retail investor-led cycle.
The most persuasive data is that ETF outflows are less than 5%, which indicates that institutions' tolerance during the pullback is far beyond expectations. A 30% pullback typically triggers significant panic among retail investors, but this time the funds have sh

#比特币投资布局 After reviewing this week's data, there are a few details worth following.
Strategy invested $960 million to increase its holdings by 10,624 bitcoins last week, with an average price of $90,615. This action itself is not considered aggressive, but in conjunction with the pace of increasing holdings by over 200,000 coins throughout the year, it shows that institutions are systematically positioning themselves. Their average price has risen from $74,696 at the beginning of the year to the current level, indicating that they are continuously entering the market even at high levels—t

#美联储降息 The Fed is almost certain to cut rates this week, with an 84% probability of a 25 BP cut, but the focus of this meeting is not on the rate cut itself, but on the policy divergence.
Five of the 12 voting members of the FOMC expressed opposition or skepticism towards further easing, a situation that has not occurred since 2019—looking at the on-chain funding situation, a strengthening of hawkish voices usually signals a marginal tightening of liquidity. The key lies in Powell's statement: if he emphasizes that the threshold for rate cuts in 2026 is very high, it means that the market

#机构比特币持仓策略 BitMine's action of increasing its holdings of $199 million in ETH amidst the market downturn is worth following. From a data perspective, this institution has raised its ETH Holdings to $11.3 billion, nearing the target accumulation scale of 5%, and still holds $882 million in cash reserves. The key point is the pace of the increase—last week the average weekly growth rate was 156%, which has clearly accelerated.
However, there is an interesting split in the funding aspect: while institutions are making large purchases, "smart money" on-chain is accelerating its short position

#市场情绪与波动 The data from November is quite interesting. The BTC/ETH fall was between 20-25%, but this decline was extremely unevenly distributed—there was significant net selling pressure during the European session, while the Asian and American sessions remained basically flat. What does this indicate?
The selling pressure is not globally synchronized, but is driven by specific regional funds. The continuous selling pressure during the European session became the straw that broke the camel's back, while the funds in Asia and the Americas are on the defensive or holding coins in wait-and-se

#美联储货币政策 The rate cut week has officially begun, and the on-chain capital flow is worth following. Last week, institutional net inflows reached $716 million, with BTC accounting for $352 million and XRP showing outstanding performance at $245 million. A key observation is that the inflow of US funds reached $483 million, which is absolutely dominant, reflecting the pricing of expectations for a Fed rate cut.
From a technical perspective, after breaking below 90,000 over the weekend, it quickly rebounded to above 92,000, with good volume support, indicating that a bottom is indeed forming. How

#加密货币监管框架建设 Argentina's Central Bank has lifted the ban on bank encryption transactions, this signal is worth following.
On the surface, it appears to be a shift in regulation from "prohibition" to "having a framework," but the underlying logic is worth unpacking. Argentina has long faced high inflation and peso depreciation, and the public has been using Bitcoin and stablecoins to hedge against risk for some time — this portion of trading volume has actually existed, just within the shadow financial system. The essence of the current reform is to "sunshine" existing trading activities ra

#美联储政策 The Fed's interest rate cut on December 10 has become a certainty, and the key point is the subsequent liquidity injection. Data from Bank of America shows that starting in January next year, $45 billion in short-term Treasury bills will be injected monthly, which means there will be no shortage of money in the market for the first three months of next year. From the on-chain funding flow perspective, whales have indeed started to take action at low levels, but it hasn't reached the level of a collective outbreak yet.
BTC is currently facing a triangular pattern resistance leve

#比特币价格走势分析 Bitcoin at $80,000 is indeed worth following. From on-chain data, the recent movements of Whale wallets have been relatively stable, with no obvious panic selling signals in large transfers. Considering the year-end funding situation and institutions' annual report sprint, there may indeed be fluctuations in December.
However, judgments based solely on "intuition" have limited reference significance. The more critical aspect is to track the changes in contract positions around this price level—if short positions accumulate significantly in this area, it may actually become a dr

#美联储降息政策 The handover node of the Fed Chair is indeed worth paying attention to. Hassett's ascension probability has reached 86%, and the policy shift signals behind this are very clear — accelerating interest rate cuts, restarting QE, prioritizing growth instead of controlling inflation.
From an on-chain perspective, once the expectations for liquidity easing materialize, the funding situation will significantly improve. It has been noted that large addresses have been accumulating recently, and whale movements have started to become active, which is usually a leading indicator of a shif

#监管框架与政策 The recognition of ADGM is indeed a turning point for the stablecoin ecosystem. From on-chain data, the deployment of USDT on mainstream public chains is already relatively complete, and now the addition of new ecosystems such as Aptos, Celo, and Cosmos is crucially backed by regulatory endorsement.
I noticed several signals worth tracking:
**First is the liquidity distribution**. The inflow scale of USDT on-chain such as Aptos, NEAR, TON will directly reflect the true attitude of institutions. If there is a significant increase in the balance of USDT contract addresses on these chai

#永续合约 Robinhood's recent moves are worth paying attention to. From a data perspective, the fee tiers have expanded from three levels to seven, with the lowest at 0.03%, directly competing with Binance and Bybit's mainstream tiered pricing; the EU side has added XRP, DOGE, SOL, and SUI perpetual trading pairs with 7x leverage, fully filling previous functional gaps.
A key signal is that this reflects the platform's intensified competition for high-volume traders. Robinhood was indeed retail-friendly in the past but lacked institutionalization. Now, by reducing fees and expanding derivatives co

#风险管理 After reviewing CryptoQuant's risk mitigation model data, the current situation indeed warrants caution. The six composite indicators—downward volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, open interest, and others—are all trending toward high-risk zones, which historically often signal significant pullback pressure.
More importantly, the profit and loss score has dropped to -3, and the loss UTXOs are extremely concentrated, which usually occurs during a bear market cycle. Although the current -32% retracement has not reached the panic selling zone (-50% to -70%), it has exceeded normal