After reviewing top institutional prediction reports for 5 years, I found that Wall Street elites are also suckers.

It's the end of the year again. I see a16z just released "Big Ideas," Ryan from Messari wrote a lengthy article, and VanEck is still calling for 180,000 dollars.

It makes people feel excited and eager to sell their house to go all in.

However, as a cautious old sucker, I spent an afternoon translating all the "year-end forecasts" written by these top institutions from 2020 to 2025.

After comparing the predictions from that year with the final results, I reached a conclusion that is more heartbreaking than "institutions deceive people":
Institutions are not actually deceiving; they are simply "suckers".

When it comes to predicting market trends, these analysts with million-dollar salaries are not much better than me, a monkey throwing darts.

Let’s take a look at this real-name system's "face-slapping record"!

2021: Wall Street collectively got excited, shouting out a sky-high price of 300,000.

That year the bull market was raging, and the institutions went completely crazy, as if Bitcoin would never fall.

How was it praised at the time?

Tom Fitzpatrick, an executive at Citibank, shouted a sky-high price of 318,000 USD, saying that Bitcoin is the gold of the 21st century.
Scott Minerd, the Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim, opened his mouth to say 400,000 dollars.
JPMorgan has also set a long-term target price of $146,000.

What's the result?
At the end of 2021, Bitcoin closed at 46,000.
Those brothers who believed in Citigroup and Guggenheim and aimed to take over for 300,000 USD stood on the high ground for a full three years.
What does this mean?

Institutional reports in a bull market are just a catalyst.
They have never seen crypto madness, really thinking that the K-line will keep rising to the sky.

2022: Mistaking "Ponzi" for "the Future"

That year, institutions were all looking for the "Ethereum killer" and were promoting "algorithmic innovation."

What was the hype at that time?
Su Zhu of Three Arrows Capital shouted "super cycle" and heavily invested in LUNA and SOL.

Pantera Capital is extremely optimistic about the Terra ecosystem, believing it to be the holy grail of decentralized finance.

The Messari report has praised "algorithmic stablecoins" to the skies.

So, what is the result?

In May, LUNA went to zero, Three Arrows Capital bankrupted itself and inadvertently brought down the entire industry.
The "new finance" praised by institutions became the biggest death knell of that year.
The "fundamentals" in the eyes of institutions are just another Ponzi scheme.
What does this mean?
Even they believe it themselves.
If it was to deceive you, why did Three Arrows Capital stake their own lives in it?
They are not scammers, they are truly foolish.

2023: The collective fear has shattered, and the bears have been slapped in the face.

After a whole year of turmoil, by the end of 2022, the institutions completely backed down.

How scary was it at that time?
Eric Robertsen, the Global Head of Research at Standard Chartered, made that famous prediction: Bitcoin could plummet to $5,000 in 2023.

Emerging markets guru Mark Mobius insists that Bitcoin will fall below $10,000.

BNP Paribas believes this year is a "long winter."
What is the result?

Just when the elites were trembling and advising clients to stay out of the market, it hit the bottom.

In 2023, Bitcoin rose from 16,000 all the way to over 40,000.
If anyone believed Standard Chartered Bank and sold at 16,000, they probably have broken their thighs by now.
What does this mean?

At the end of the bear market, institutions are even more panicked than retail investors.

2024: Guessed BlackRock, didn't guess the "shitcoin"

This year, institutions did get the ETF right, but their understanding of the market was completely off.
What was said at that time?

VanEck predicts a major explosion in blockchain gaming, with daily active users exceeding one million.
JPMorgan has a cautious outlook for the year, believing that the benefits of ETFs have already been exhausted.

What is the result?
Bitcoin has indeed reached a new high, but it's all due to the bull market brought by Trump and the ETF.

Chain games and social interactions are still not attracting players, and have even reached a freezing point. Even Facaster, the last hope for social interactions on Base a few days ago, has transformed.

But what really exploded was the Meme (suckers) that institutions look down upon.

2025 (this year): The embarrassment of the cowhide burst.

Think back to the end of last year, which is the end of 2024, and how big everyone's appetite was.
How was the pie drawn at that time?

Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin will reach 150,000 USD in 2025.
Standard Chartered Bank has changed its stance this time, from bearish on 5000 to calling for 200,000 USD.
VanEck even refrained from making predictions for 2026 recently because their previous forecast was too outrageous (not reaching 180,000), stating that they wanted to "protect their reputation."
What's the situation now?

It's December now, let's talk about the K-line.

The bull market is indeed here, but Bitcoin is still hovering around 88,000.

We are still a whole double away from the targets of 150,000 and 200,000.

Last few words from the heart

After looking back at the "face-slapping history" of the past 5 years, the logic is actually very clear.
If you think the institutions are scammers, then you are overestimating them.
At least the scammers know when to run, while Three Arrows Capital and FTX have completely destroyed themselves.
The mistakes made by institutions are exactly the same as those made by street vendors.

Last year it rose, and this year they dare to shout 300,000 (2021).
Last year it fell, this year it dares to look at 5000 bucks (2023)

In this market, the only one who can be responsible for your principal is yourself.