#大户持仓动态 $BTC $ETH $UNI

The dilemma of US Treasury bonds, a liquidity turning point is forming.

Recently, when chatting with several overseas institutional investors, the conversation always returns to the same topic - U.S. Treasury bonds. The debt scale of 34 trillion dollars is no longer news, but the underlying logic chain is starting to loosen.

On one hand, the Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma: raising interest rates does not curb growth, while lowering them would exacerbate the debt burden. The previous commitment to tightening is gradually turning into compromise. On the other hand, the Treasury's expansionary impulse shows no signs of abating—who will foot the bill? The attitudes of global central banks are beginning to diverge.

Japan continues to buy U.S. Treasuries as a kind of strategic asset. However, more noteworthy is China's reduction in holdings, which has hit a new low since the 2008 financial crisis. Why? Three realities: inflation has eroded the real returns on U.S. Treasuries, the risk of freezing dollar assets has come to light, and the opportunity cost is too high—funds placed elsewhere can yield better risk-adjusted returns.

The global consensus on "risk-free assets" is collapsing. In a low-growth, high-volatility market environment, the old asset allocation logic has failed. The allocation weights of cryptocurrencies, precious metals, and even non-mainstream assets are quietly rising. This not only changes the macro-financial landscape but also reshapes the risk perception of every market participant.

From U.S. Treasuries to digital assets, from central bank policies to personal asset allocation, there are no outsiders in this transformation.