#美联储政策走向 The Fed's interest rate cut this week is basically a done deal, with Polymarket data showing a 93% probability for a rate cut in December, but the key signal is in January — the probability of a rate cut is only 27%, while the probability of a pause rises to 68%.

From the perspective of on-chain liquidity, this is an important policy juncture. Powell's wording this week will directly impact market expectations—Deutsche Bank expects him to emphasize that the threshold for interest rate cuts in early 2026 is very high, which means that the easing window may close in the short term.

Discrepancies in institutional forecasts are worth noting: Nomura economists suggest that the market has underestimated the risk of not lowering interest rates, while Deutsche Bank expects the vote will not be unanimous. This divergence itself is a signal, reflecting the rising uncertainty within the Fed regarding the future policy path.

The insight from the strategic judgment is not to be misled by the certainty of a rate cut in December—the real liquidity turning point may occur in January or later next year. In the short term, pay attention to the specific wording of Powell's statements, while in the medium term, focus on tracking the adjustment and flow of institutional funds' positions at the end of the year. The reversal of policy expectations often appears in large operations before the market reacts.