Why is the market more fearful when all assets are rising?

On Monday's opening, gold, crude oil, and U.S. stock futures all opened in the green. The S&P 500 index just crossed 6800 points, the Nasdaq returned above the 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin held steady at $85,000. Everything looks so good, perfectly like a script for a bull market restart.
But wait—did you notice the word that was deliberately ignored: "light trading"?
On Wall Street, there is a rise called "false prosperity," scientifically known as "price illusion under liquidity vacuum." As the holiday approaches, institutional funds are beginning to withdraw in an orderly manner, and traders have switched to "auto-pilot" mode. When the big players pack up and leave, the market turns into a shallow pool, where even a small pebble can create astonishing splashes. At this moment, the rise is not a convergence of consensus but a pause in divergence; it is not a confirmation of trend but a fatigue of trading.
We are in a "floating market" — all assets are rising, but no market truly "believes" this story.
Year-end fooling game: everyone knows the outcome, but no one wants to exit early.
The only theme script starting this week is: bet on the year-end rebound. Note that the keyword is "bet", not "optimistic".
This is not an investment based on the economic outlook for 2025, but a carefully calculated game of timing. Fund managers need to make their performance look less bad on the December 31st position report; retail investors want to catch the tail end of the "Christmas rally" and squeeze out the last bit of profit. When everyone tacitly participates in this "tacit pump," the market instead enters a dangerous state of silent agreement.
There are two outcomes to this state:
Either overdraw in advance: when "the year-end must rise" becomes a consensus expectation, smart money will start to withdraw before December 20, handing the chips over to the last batch of optimists.
Either rise faster or die sooner: If the trading volume continues to shrink, prices can easily be pushed to absurd highs, but any minor disturbance will trigger a sell-off. A rise without new buyers essentially accumulates potential energy for a drop.
The marvel of hedged coexistence: when the market no longer believes in any single narrative.
Strangely, this is a rare moment where "everything is rising, yet none are enemies."
The stock market is rising, but the dollar hasn't fallen; gold is shining, yet US bond yields remain high; risk assets are celebrating, and safe-haven assets are also holding strong. Normally, these assets should show a seesaw effect, but now they seem to have agreed upon moving forward together in step.
What does this mean? It means that the market does not believe in any story.
Bullish stock market participants hedge with non-falling USD; bullish gold investors balance risks with bonds; those betting on Bitcoin might still hold USD stablecoins. This is not the optimism of a bull market, but a collective indecision—each participant is buying "insurance" for their positions, preparing "counter-evidence" for every judgment.
When the market loses its sense of direction, it is no longer an investment but a game of probability. What everyone is betting on is not "it will rise," but "there is still time to rise before bad news comes."
January Judgment Day: The Sword of Damocles Hanging Overhead
The tranquility of the holiday is real, but it is also fleeting. The true market watershed is not in December, but in January. It is not a specific trading day, but a two-week period of repricing.
Unresolved Chinese factors: The high-level meeting in early January will set the tone for the year's policy direction. If the signals are not clear enough and do not exceed expectations, those who call themselves "patient capital" will continue to hibernate. The market can tolerate a delay in policy, but cannot bear the absence of directional guidance.
The Federal Reserve's January Trap: The current market bets on two rate cuts next year, which is a relatively rational expectation. However, if the January meeting releases a "pause on rate cuts" hawkish signal, the entire asset valuation model will need to be re-discounted. In a thin liquidity environment, this re-evaluation will be brutal.
The deeper risk is that these two variables in January are not isolated. If China's policies fall short of expectations and are compounded by a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve, global markets will experience a "double mismatch" shockwave.
In this market, there are only three survival rules.
First, don't be misled by the term "pump". In a market without trading volume, price is the least honest indicator. Focus on volatility, not returns; focus on position management, not stock picking ability.
Second, maintain "reversibility". Any decision should be easily reversible. Avoid building difficult-to-close positions before holidays, and keep at least 30% of cash or highly liquid assets. The best gift the market gives you is not a rise, but options.
Third, prepare an "asymmetric strategy" for January: the current market is not suitable for directional betting. Consider constructing "tail risk protection" using options or negatively correlated assets while holding a core position. This is not bearish, but rather an acknowledgment of "I don't know" and buying insurance for "I don't know".
Your choice determines whether you are a player or a chip.
The most dangerous aspect of this market is that it creates an illusion of "must participate." Watching the floating profits in others' accounts makes you fear missing out; listening to the mantra of "must rise by year-end" makes you fear being different. But the truth is, at moments of collective hesitation, the biggest risk is not missing out but being forced to take sides.
What is your investment strategy?
Which variable do you think is more decisive, China's policy in January or the Federal Reserve's decision?
In this "floating market", would you choose to increase your position, decrease your position, or completely observe?
Leave your judgment in the comments section. In this time full of uncertainty, everyone's independent thinking could become a light that illuminates others. If you think this "counter-consensus" interpretation of the market is valuable, please share it with the friend who understands macro the best and see if he is also losing sleep over the same issue.
The endgame of the market is never predicted, but rather the result of the choices made by all participants. Follow this account @CryptoGoldDigger, in the next issue we will deeply analyze "how to build asymmetric positions during the January repricing period". Every interaction you have is helping us navigate through the fog of uncertainty together. #成长值抽奖赢金条和精美周边