The Fed's interest rate hike, yet Bitcoin instead experiences a big pump? Decoding the "dislocation game" between the crypto market and interest rate cycles.
When traditional financial textbooks meet the crypto market, all classic theories seem to need rewriting. In 2024-2025, we witnessed the bizarre scene of "interest rates not falling during hikes and not rising during cuts," behind which is an astonishing game of misalignment between economic cycles and monetary policy.
The Collapse of Traditional Logic: The Unconventional Play of the Crypto Market
In traditional financial markets, the

The Fed's "opening the floodgates" is confirmed! The biggest shackles in the encryption circle have been broken, and BTC is preparing for an epic move.
Family! I just cross-validated no less than 10 sources, and with shaky hands finished this article—this time the Fed is not just talking, they are serious! On April 25, 2025, the Fed officially revoked the "Strangulation Point Action 2.0" and abolished all regulatory guidelines that suppressed banks' participation in encryption since 2022. This is not some "expectation management," but a direct replacement of the "ban" on banks serving

Panic at 25, but the price doesn't crash: this is not the bottom, but the "silent market maker transition period".
On December 22, the panic index is stuck at 25 again. Bitcoin didn't have a waterfall, altcoins didn't crash, and even the liquidation volume of contracts reached a new low.
This is not that the market has become stronger, but rather that retail investors have lost the strength to panic.
1. First, let's break down this "25 points": it's not an emotional breakdown, it's a "trading freeze".
The panic index is weighted by 6 dimensions:
• Volatility 25%
• Tradi

Bitcoin fell below $90,000, why did I see a "golden pit"? The three-year anti-fall mindset of an old sucker.
Last night when Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 barrier, my phone was blown up again.
"Can't hold on anymore, should I cut my losses?" "Has the bear market really arrived?" The screen full of anxiety instantly transported me back to that thrilling night three years ago. At that time, I also sweated in my palms, staring at the candlestick chart and unable to sleep all night, almost handing over my bloodied chips at the lowest point. Not long after, the market taught me with a stron

Why is the market more fearful when all assets are rising?
On Monday's opening, gold, crude oil, and U.S. stock futures all opened in the green. The S&P 500 index just crossed 6800 points, the Nasdaq returned above the 50-day moving average, and Bitcoin held steady at $85,000. Everything looks so good, perfectly like a script for a bull market restart.
But wait—did you notice the word that was deliberately ignored: "light trading"?
On Wall Street, there is a rise called "false prosperity," scientifically known as "price illusion under liquidity vacuum." As the holiday approaches, instituti

When the US dollar index falls below this line, the wealth logic of the past 50 years will be rewritten.
The technical charts show that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is testing a dangerous area: the key support zone around 95-96 points. This position is important not only because it has been maintained for 15 years, but also because it represents the last technical consensus on US dollar credit in the post-Bretton Woods system era. The last three times this line was touched—the 2008 financial crisis, the 2014 euro crisis, and the 2020 pandemic shock—triggered global policy interventions. But this

Bitcoin $90,000 Stalemate: Institutional Tactical Pause and the Offensive Signals from Whales Hidden
When the price of Bitcoin has shown an electrocardiogram-like stagnation in the $89,000 range for 48 consecutive hours, and Ethereum is consolidating with reduced volume around the $3,000 mark, there is a general unease among market participants: Has the bullish momentum already faded? Has the main capital completed its withdrawal?
Conclusions drawn solely from K-line appearances are often biased. Through a systematic review of Glassnode on-chain data and CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) posit

Bitcoin 90,000 "false breakouts" truth: 500 million Get Liquidated is just an appetizer, the real slaughter knife has yet to fall.
Bitcoin violently surged from 87,100 to 90,400, and the whole network celebrated the "bull market's quick return"! Little did they know this was actually a meticulously planned "trap for the bulls", with over $500 million in leveraged funds slaughtered within 24 hours, pushing the price back down below 86,000. Behind this massacre lies a market truth more brutal than candlesticks.
This is not a trend reversal, but a "self-slaughter" of leveraged funds.
The culp

Is Japan's Most Aggressive Rate Hike in History "Immune" to Bitcoin? A More Dangerous Signal Is Emerging
0.75%—The Bank of Japan implements a historic rate hike. According to the old script, Bitcoin should be bleeding profusely.
The bloody memories of the previous three rate hikes are still vivid: March 2024, July 2024, January 2025, each causing Bitcoin to plummet over 20%, with countless leveraged positions wiped out. The core logic is simple and brutal: the collapse of yen arbitrage trading, panic fleeing of funds borrowed in cheap yen to trade cryptocurrencies.
But this time, the script is

The Brutal Truth About the Fourth Halving Bull Market: We've All Been "De-Risked"
Who would have thought that this highly anticipated halving bull market would ultimately turn into a collective funeral for retail investors?
This is not an ordinary bear market; it’s a precise explosion targeting faith itself.
When "HODL" Becomes the Most Expensive Faith Tax
In 2021, Hold On for Dear Life was the most sacred slogan in the crypto world—just hold tight, and time will give you the answer; by 2025, the same approach has become the most expensive fuel in the wealth destruction machine.
A big player I

Japan's Rate Hike Imminent: Why Bitcoin Might Not Drop This Time? Three Major Signals Indicating a Change in Market Logic
"Japan's Central Bank hikes once, Bitcoin must crash!" As the Tokyo Central Bank's rate decision approaches, such predictions are once again rampant in the crypto community. Yesterday, Bitcoin retreated from a high of $90,000 to $85,616, a 5% drop in one day that seems to confirm this panic.
But looking beyond the surface to the essence, this market script may be being rewritten.
Historical Burden: Three Rate Hikes, Three Bloodbaths
Market PTSD from Japan's rate hikes is no

As the $34 trillion financial ticking time bomb counts down, is your crypto portfolio ready to "weather the storm"?
Tonight, Tokyo time, the world's largest yen arbitrage trading system will face a historic stress test. Over $3.4 trillion in leveraged positions—built on a decade of ultra-low interest rates—may begin to collapse due to a single rate hike decision by the Bank of Japan. For the cryptocurrency market, which resonates deeply with global liquidity, this is no ordinary macro event but a stress test that could rewrite short-term trends.
The End of Arbitrage Trading
Over the past decad

Bank of Japan "Hikes by 25BP": The "Liquidity Tipping Point" for Global Risk Assets Has Arrived
As the interest rate decision is implemented this morning Tokyo time, a landmark moment will unfold in the global financial markets—Japan's benchmark interest rate will rise to 0.75%, reaching a new high since 1995. Market pricing indicates a 98% probability of a 25 basis point hike.
This is not an ordinary monetary policy adjustment but the closing of the "Three Gorges Dam" on global capital flows.
1. Farewell to the "Arbitrage Paradise": The End of a Thirty-Year Financing Arbitrage Model
Over the

Japan's rate hike "gentle cut" hurts the crypto market: When the era of cheap yen ends, the battle for $84,000 BTC is imminent
The dual extremes of ice and fire are tearing apart the confidence of every crypto investor.
Last night, the Nasdaq 100 index rose over 1.38%, Tesla surged 3% in a single day, and the S&P 500 steadily gained 0.79%, with tech blue chips celebrating across the board. Meanwhile, Bitcoin slid from $85,608 down to the $83,800 range, a decline of 2.8%; Ethereum fared even worse, dropping to $2,833, a sharp 4.46% plunge, with stocks of compliant trading platforms also plungin

Ethereum Market Depth: "Ice and Fire" Tear the Market Apart, Is ETH Experiencing a "Unique Bear Market"?
Last night, the financial markets staged a rare "ice and fire spectacle"—the Nasdaq 100 index rose over 1.38%, Tesla surged 3% in a single day, the S&P 500 steadily gained 0.79%, and tech blue chips celebrated across the board.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was like a forgotten child trembling in the cold wind. Bitcoin slid from $85,608, dropping 2.8%; Ethereum fared even worse, plunging to $2,833, a sharp decline of 4.46%. Even stocks of compliant trading platforms tumbled over 2%.

Japan Rate Hike vs. US Rate Cut: Crypto Market Encounters "Ice and Fire," Smart Money Is Positioning Like This
In early 2025, the crypto market stands at a rare crossroads. On one side is the "Sword of Damocles" of Japan's rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and on the other is the dawn of rate cuts driven by cooling inflation in the US. This policy divergence creates a "clash of ice and fire," reshaping market logic and hiding the biggest risks and opportunities of the year.
Japan Rate Hike: The End of the Cheap Yen Era
After thirty years, Japan's central bank has once again raised interest rates

Tonight is a sleepless night! Two major nuclear bombs about to explode—will the cryptocurrency market really turn upside down?
As usual, brew a strong coffee, keep your eyes open—tonight is destined to be a night of blood and chaos, a “battle night.” The candlestick charts in front of the screen are more exciting than any Hollywood blockbuster—US CPI data and the Bank of Japan decision, two “financial nuclear bombs” detonating in succession. Global macro funds are flowing in the dark, preparing for a massive migration. That surge last night? Just a warm-up for institutional funds. The real lif

The Survival Rules for Ethereum Traders: Eight Deadly Lines Forged Through Eight Years of Practical Experience
Having navigated the crypto market for eight years and experienced three bull and bear cycles, I increasingly understand a harsh truth: trading is not a skill competition, but a survival game. Those flashy technical indicators and complex trading strategies are often no match for real market storms. What truly keeps you alive are the most basic survival rules.
The following eight ironclad laws are my mandatory death or survival checklists before each position opening, and it was these