Gold Market
On Thursday, gold prices sharply fell amid a stronger US dollar and rising expectations of interest rate hikes: spot gold dropped by 2.2% to 4,651.35 dollars per ounce, and American gold futures declined by 2.8% to 4,679.70 dollars. US President Trump said he would continue attacks on Iran, promising to “send Iran back to the Stone Age,” which pushed oil prices higher, intensified concerns about inflation, and reduced the likelihood of rate cuts, putting pressure on non-yielding gold. Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on February 28, spot gold prices have fallen by 12%. Market sentiment also deteriorated due to a sharp reduction in the gold reserves of the Central Bank of Turkey—over the past two weeks by more than 118 tons (on last week — a decline of 69.1 tons to 702.5 tons). On the demand side, amid falling gold prices in India, a premium over the spot price was recorded for the first time in two months. Among other precious metals: spot silver fell by 3.7% to 72.38 dollars, platinum rose by 0.9% to 1,981.95 dollars, and palladium fell by 1.9% to 1,497.00 dollars.

International News
The probability of the Fed rate remaining unchanged in April is 99.5%, and the likelihood of a rate hike this year has increased to 14.7%
According to CME FedWatch: the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April is 0.5%, unchanged — 99.5%. By June, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.0%, unchanged — 93.5%, and a 25 basis point increase — 0.5%. By December, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35.1% (the day before — 25.1), unchanged — 50.2% (the day before — 73), an increase — 14.7% (the day before — 1.9).
The Russian presidential aide stated that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russia
Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov told Russian media that the Strait of Hormuz is open to Russian ships. He also noted that the situation in the Middle East remains complex. Additionally, he mentioned that the US has not approached Russia with requests for mediation to resolve the situation in the Middle East. (CCTV News)
US Army attacked Iranian bridge, new strikes on infrastructure expected
According to Axios, on Thursday, U.S. military forces struck a key civilian infrastructure target in Iran for the first time, a few hours after President Trump’s threat to “push Iran back to the Stone Age.” The strike on the B-1 bridge near Tehran indicates an expansion of U.S. military targets and could mark the beginning of attacks on energy, hydroelectric, and transportation infrastructure. A Pentagon spokesperson said further strikes on bridges are possible. The bridge was targeted because Iranian armed forces used it to transport missiles and components from Tehran to the western part of the country. Components were transported in large boxes and containers, assembled at the launch site. The bridge was also used to supply the Iranian military in Tehran.
Iran attacked Oracle and Amazon data centers in the region
On the evening of April 2, the IRGC Navy command issued a statement about strikes on Oracle’s data

Oil Market
International oil prices surged sharply on Thursday: WTI crude rose by more than 13% and closed at $112.06 per barrel, recording the largest one-day gain since 2020; Brent futures rose by 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. The reason is U.S. President Trump’s promise to continue strikes against Iran and the lack of deadlines for ending the conflict or opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that over the next two to three weeks there will be extremely tough strikes, promising to push Iran back to the “Stone Age,” which heightened fears of prolonged disruptions in oil supplies. Despite the fact that Iran and Oman are preparing a protocol to monitor the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, traders shifted their focus to the vulnerability of Iran’s oil infrastructure. Recently, the spreads between U.S. oil and Brent reached their highest levels in a year, and the premium of near-term contracts over longer-dated ones also set an absolute record. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan noted that accelerating the conflict’s end could have limited impact on the economy, but overall the outlook remains unclear. Citi expects that the average baseline price of Brent in the second half of the year will be $95, and in an optimistic scenario — $130; JPMorgan expects that in the short term oil could rise to $120–130, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-May — then also exceed $150.

According to the APP "Golden Shape" report, U.S. President Trump signed a statement on Thursday aimed at adjusting national tariffs for security reasons on the import of steel, aluminum, and copper (Section 232 tariffs). This adjustment is intended to lower tariff rates on derivative metals, simplify declaration procedures, and prevent undervaluation of import values.
The statement says that the U.S. will maintain a 50% tariff on imports of such bulk goods as steel, aluminum, and copper, but now this rate will be applied to the price paid by American consumers. The main changes concern derivative products, where a threshold metal content is introduced for more accurate duty assessment.
Details of the new rules
Under the new rules, if the steel, aluminum, or copper content in a derivative product by weight is less than 15%, the U.S. will cancel the previously applicable 50% tariff, effectively exempting such goods from duties. This measure is intended to exempt products with very low metal content, such as perfume bottles with aluminum caps or dental floss boxes with miniature steel blades.
For derivative products with metal content exceeding 15%, a reduced tariff rate of 25% will be applied, but this rate will be calculated based on the total value of the imported product, not just the metal content. Thus, for products like washing machines or gas stoves, where steel is a main component, the duty will be 25% of the total value.
Meanwhile, bulk goods made of steel, aluminum, and copper will retain a high 50% duty, calculated on the entire sale price. According to officials, these measures could generate additional revenue from tariffs and also simplify customs declaration, eliminating opportunities to evade tariffs by undervaluing metal content.