Trump is now fighting for the US stock market. Since taking office, he may ignore other issues, but he cannot let the US stocks fall because that’s his face and his biggest bargaining chip for re-election.
So you’ll see him often use verbal threats to defend the market. Today, he created another spectacle—insisting that indirect negotiations with Iran are progressing smoothly and that an agreement is likely to be reached soon.
However, based on leaked information, it’s just diplomats from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey passing messages between the US and Iran, telling each side their respective conditions. The media then exaggerated this as direct talks between the US and Iran.
You know Trump’s style—he always blows things out of proportion, and anyway, he doesn’t have to pay taxes.
The conditions from both sides are too far apart; a deal is simply impossible. Iran wants sanctions lifted and legal channels for oil exports, while the US wants Iran to completely abandon its nuclear program and stop supporting regional proxies.
Their bottom lines are worlds apart—can they really reach an agreement just through a few intermediaries passing messages? Dream on. Most likely, they’ll need to face each other directly.
That’s why Trump is now hinting at controlling Iran’s oil while also saying negotiations are going well—he looks like he’s going crazy. It’s actually a classic “both want and don’t want” dilemma—wanting to appear tough but not wanting to really crash the market.