The crypto market in 2026 is undergoing a profound transformation. The traditional cycle theory driven by retail investor sentiment is fading, replaced by a new pattern woven together by global liquidity and regulatory compliance—an era of massive institutional capital inflows is approaching.

First, let's look at the macro support. The Federal Reserve has completed three rate cuts in 2025, with the benchmark interest rate falling below 4%, and balance sheet reduction has also settled. The clear script for next year is: expect another 1-2 rate cuts (around 50 basis points), followed by a high probability of initiating QE. This round of easing will release a huge amount of liquidity, benefiting risk assets across the board. Bitcoin, as a representative of risk assets, naturally becomes a new option for institutional allocation. The adoption rate of stablecoins will also rise accordingly, as expanding demand is inevitable.

On the regulatory front, a clear shift signal has emerged. The new SEC leadership's attitude is no longer about suppression but about how to make the industry "standardized and transparent." Legislation like FIT21 is being promoted, and Paul Atkins' advocated "everything on-chain" concept is gaining industry consensus. At this pace, around Q1 2026, crypto exemption policies are very likely to be implemented, which will directly stimulate the DeFi ecosystem.

Even more noteworthy is the accelerating integration of traditional finance and the crypto sector. In 2026, we will see a wave of IPOs launched by numerous crypto companies, marking the industry's move toward maturity. Although Bitcoin's "four-year cycle theory" has historical basis, it now seems somewhat outdated in a liquidity-driven era—this cycle's driving forces come from macro and policy factors, rather than purely technical or emotional factors.