Brief

The #Bitcoin situation is ambiguous: demand indicators are weakening, creating challenges for bulls, but technical analysis suggests a possible recovery. Here are the latest news:

Demand for Bitcoin weakens (January 2, 2026) – blockchain data shows a decline in demand despite stable prices.
BTC approaches the $100 000 (January 1, 2026) mark – long-term holders are halting sales, which causes cautious optimism.
New US tax rules do not affect cryptocurrency (January 1, 2026) – the transfer tax does not apply to cryptocurrencies, reducing regulatory concerns.

Details

1. Demand for Bitcoin weakens (January 2, 2026)

Overview:
CryptoQuant’s “Apparent Demand” indicator, which compares miner coin issuance and changes in “sleeping” supply, shows that demand over the past 30 days has turned negative, although annual demand remains positive but is decreasing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs as of December 31 recorded a net outflow of $348 million (with major outflows from BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale), reflecting weak institutional investor interest.

What it means:
This is a negative signal for BTC, as weakening demand usually precedes a prolonged price consolidation period. However, long-term holders (LTH) have accumulated 10,700 BTC since late December, indicating underlying confidence in the asset. (NewsBTC)

2. BTC approaches the $100 000 (January 1, 2026) mark

Overview:
BTC price fluctuates around $88 000, with blockchain data showing an increase in long-term holder reserves @E0#+10,700 BTC over 30 days( and a decrease in net outflows from exchanges, reducing selling pressure. The LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio )SOPR( around 1.0 indicates no panic selling or profit-taking.

What it means:
This is a neutral-positive signal, as supply-side pressure is weakening. Nonetheless, the lack of price growth amid weak ETF inflows suggests that for a sustainable rally, demand must recover. Key resistance is at )000; surpassing it could resume the bullish trend. $92 Yahoo Finance(

3. New US tax rules do not affect cryptocurrency )January 1, 2026(

Overview:
The new US tax rules introduce a 1% tax on cash-funded international money transfers but exclude cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. The IRS )IRS( clarified that crypto transfers are not considered “physical payment instruments” under this policy.

What it means:
This is a neutral factor for BTC, as it removes a potential regulatory obstacle for crypto transfers. However, questions remain about the practical application of the rules, and the exemption of stablecoins from tax could boost their popularity in payments compared to BTC. )Binance(

Summary

Bitcoin’s near-term future depends on its ability to restore demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty )delayed US rate cuts until mid-2026(. Long-term holder accumulation and favorable regulatory changes provide stability, but outflows from ETFs and the dominance of futures )ETF volumes are 20 times smaller( limit growth potential. Can declining ETF interest be offset by improving blockchain fundamentals in January?