#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the divergence in opinions between Tom Lee and Sean Farrell, I actually think this is a good phenomenon. It reminds me of the 2017 cycle when institutions first entered the market—back then, debates among analysts were much more intense.

Different analytical frameworks, different target audiences, and naturally different strategies. Tom Lee is targeting large funds with only 1-5% allocation to BTC and ETH, focusing on long-term structural trends and discipline; Sean Farrell's clients are professional investors with over 20% in crypto assets, needing to cycle through market phases to outperform. Essentially, this reflects the current multi-layered differentiation in institutional investment.

But what's interesting is that they actually agree on one key point—the price of Bitcoin will challenge new highs before the end of the year. Their disagreement is only on the timing: one says by the end of January 2026, the other suggests it might first dip to 60-65K before rising. Historically, such timing disagreements are quite common.

What impresses me is that whenever we discuss "perfect pricing," it's often the most dangerous moment. Sean mentioned that the current market pricing is almost perfect, but risks still exist—this is very cautionary. Variables like government shutdowns, Federal Reserve changes, miner pressure, and original holders selling do indeed exist.

Anyone who has experienced multiple cycles understands that the hardest part isn't predicting the direction, but controlling risks and waiting for confirmation signals. Although institutional voices are divided this time, it precisely indicates that the market is moving from a single narrative to multi-dimensional analysis. That’s true maturity.