Rice-eatingChainFriends

#稳定币市场 When I saw this set of data, the first thought that came to mind was — we are truly witnessing a structural shift.
Remember the 2017 bull market? Back then, stablecoins were just supporting characters, mainly used for arbitrage and quick entry and exit. But now? The liquidation of $19 billion in margin calls has cleared out speculative bubbles in the market, and the remaining players are starting to seriously consider asset allocation. Over $20 billion is flowing into interest-bearing stablecoins, and this is not a small number — it indicates that large funds have shifted from "how to

#预测市场 Seeing the recent incident with Polymarket, I felt a familiar sense of helplessness. Since 2017, I have witnessed too many security incidents caused by third-party vulnerabilities—from early exchange hacks, to wallet service provider backdoors, to now prediction market platform authentication flaws. The script seems never to have changed.
Tools like Magic Labs are designed to be user-friendly, allowing newcomers without wallet experience to get started quickly. However, this convenience often comes at the expense of security. We are always swaying between growth and safety. Ironically,

#RWA实物资产代币化 Seeing the news that DWF Labs has completed its first physical gold transaction, the first thought that came to mind was: we are finally returning from a purely digital game to real assets.
I still remember the 2017 bull market, when everyone was speculating on concepts and stories, only to end up with a mess. Back then, I was wondering when the crypto market would mature and be able to carry truly valuable assets. Seven or eight years have passed in the blink of an eye, and from the crazy speculation back then to today’s asset-liability driven approach, this transformation has be

#比特币价格走势 Seeing Saylor's remarks, what flashed through my mind was the shadow of the 2013 market rally. Back then, some people confidently claimed Bitcoin would reach $10,000, only to experience a long bear market afterward. I'm not saying he was wrong, but the logic behind such predictions is worth a closer look.
The Strategy of accumulating 5% to push the price to 1 million sounds very tempting on the surface—large institutional holdings can indeed alter market supply and demand. But I've seen similar stories in historical cycles: every time, new whales enter the market, and someone always

#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the divergence in opinions between Tom Lee and Sean Farrell, I actually think this is a good phenomenon. It reminds me of the 2017 cycle when institutions first entered the market—back then, debates among analysts were much more intense.
Different analytical frameworks, different target audiences, and naturally different strategies. Tom Lee is targeting large funds with only 1-5% allocation to BTC and ETH, focusing on long-term structural trends and discipline; Sean Farrell's clients are professional investors with over 20% in crypto assets, needing to cycle through market pha

#稳定币市场与应用 Seeing this "address poisoning" incident, I am reminded of the ICO chaos in 2017. Back then, we saw too many stories of total loss due to a small oversight—only now, it’s a contract vulnerability; this time, it’s a fatal flaw in UI design.
50 million USDT was lost just like that, and it all started with an ellipsis. The display format like 0xbaf4b1aF...B6495F8b5 created a perfect trap between security and convenience. Phishers generated addresses with identical start and end, used 0.005 USDT as bait, and users copied hastily—human weaknesses exploited precisely.
From my years of exp

#加密货币监管框架 Seeing the Upexi case, a shadow of the 2017 ICO wave flashed through my mind. Back then, many projects that loudly proclaimed ecological development and unlimited fundraising, how many of them are still alive today?
History always repeats itself in astonishing ways. Upexi has fallen from $22.57 in May to $1.825 now, a decline of over 92%. This is not just stock price fluctuation; it’s market liquidation. A publicly listed company that once claimed to revolutionize crypto treasuries now has to submit a $1 billion fundraising application to the SEC to maintain operations—this shift it

#比特币价格走势 The logic behind this wave of decline is actually very familiar. It looks like a new story, but in reality, it's still the same old script.
Forced liquidations, legislative obstacles, and weakening corporate buying motivation—simply put, a triple blow stacking up. I saw a similar scene in 2017, when policy uncertainty combined with leveraged liquidations caused the market to tumble together. The difference is that back then, the regulatory shoe hadn't dropped yet, and everyone was speculating; this time, at least we know what the shoe looks like, only the landing time is still being

#稳定币市场发展 In 2025, Ethereum finally steps out of the laboratory.
Remember the fervent era of 2017, when everyone was discussing "Will Ethereum become the world's computer"? My answer back then was cautious. I had seen too many promises and too many projects hitting walls in reality. But this time, the way data speaks is different.
From Pectra to Fusaka, two major hard forks completed within a year, account abstraction, PeerDAS scaling, three gas optimizations without hard forks—these are not visions, but real engineering solutions. My deepest impression comes from the stablecoin market: a tota

#BTC市场分析 Seeing this wave of institutional rhetoric, I need to review it from a historical perspective.
BlackRock lists Bitcoin as one of the three major investment pillars for 2025, while Galaxy and VanEck are respectively projecting million-dollar targets for 2026-2027—these voices sound very familiar. I still remember at the end of the 2017 bull market, similar institutions were telling similar stories, only back then the terminology was "blockchain revolution" rather than "non-correlated asset hedging."
But this time, there is indeed a difference. What's the difference? The pricing in the

#比特币价格走势 Seeing Tom Lee's explanation actually reminded me of some details from the 2017 cycle. Back then, I often saw similar "contradictions"—saying they were long-term bullish while being extremely cautious in their operations. Only later did I realize that this isn't really a contradiction, but a trade-off between two dimensions.
The coexistence of short-term defense and long-term optimism makes sense to me. At the fund level, risk management, portfolio balancing, and responsibility to LPs naturally require a protective stance during liquidity pressures; but macro cycle judgments indeed p

#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 on Polymarket drop from an optimistic expectation to 10%, my mind flashes back to the end of the 2017 bull run. Back then, everyone was talking about $50,000, $100,000, or even more outrageous figures, and market sentiment was pushed to the extreme—until reality delivered a long bear market that gave everyone a slap in the face.
Today’s scene feels somewhat familiar. Predicting a 32% chance of $95,000 and an 18% chance of dropping below $80,000—what does this data reflect? It indicates that market participants’ expectations are shiftin

#代币估值与机制 Seeing BTW's Booster program, with a 165-point threshold and lock-up period, reminds me of the evolution of token distribution models I've seen over the years.
Early project airdrops were often crude and straightforward—claim and sell immediately, which once caused the market to be chaotic. Later, everyone learned to use lock-up periods to filter genuine participants and avoid short-term selling pressure. I can understand Binance's design logic this time—setting a points threshold to block pure profiteers, and the lock-up period to protect the project's initial price stability.
But t

#比特币价格走势 Seeing this set of Q4 data, my first reaction was to dig out old notes from 2018. I experienced that year's bear market, and the panic at the bottom has a strange similarity to the current "rebound weakness."
A 22% quarterly decline is indeed rare in recent years. But interestingly, the market is creating a hypnotic illusion of a reversal—Bitcoin rebounding to around $90,000, with total market cap returning to $3 trillion. On the surface, it looks like a "sign of recovery," but Santiment's analysis has pierced through this illusion: social media panic sentiment is simply not deep eno

#衍生品市场合约 Seeing the liquidity contraction during this Christmas week, a few key moments from the past few years naturally come to mind. At the end of 2017, and again at the end of 2021, each time around year-end, the market tends to replay similar scenes—liquidity dries up, leverage is actively liquidated, and options expire en masse. History is like an old movie played repeatedly; the details differ, but the plot is remarkably similar.
The current data looks quite striking: overnight, open interest in BTC perpetual contracts evaporated by $3 billion, and ETH also shrank by $2 billion. This i

#去中心化预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop from previously high levels to 10% brings a familiar feeling. This isn't the first time witnessing such a turning point.
I still remember the madness at the end of 2017, when everyone was shouting about $100,000, as if it was just a matter of time. But by 2018, many steadfast believers wavered. Then came the rebound in 2020, another wave of hope. By the end of 2021, history repeated itself—when everyone believed something was inevitable, the market often gave the exact opposite answer.
The current data is quite i

#代币锁定与派发机制 Seeing the lock-up mechanism design of BTW's Pre-TGE, I suddenly recalled dozens of projects I've seen over the years. The 216-point threshold may seem high or low, but the key point remains—the tokens are not tradable, transferable, or usable during the lock-up period, and the unlock schedule may not be announced in advance.
What is hidden behind this statement? I have seen similar strategic evolutions in 2017 and 2021. Early ICO projects used lock-up periods to prevent team dumps. Later, during the IEO era, exchanges became credit backers, and lock-up periods turned into tools to

#稳定币生态发展 When Libra was announced in 2019, I saw a panic almost threatening the entire financial system's survival. At that time, the mainstream narrative was one tone: stablecoins would drain bank deposits. I was also troubled by this question—if billions of people could hold digital dollars on their phones that could be transferred instantly, who would keep their money in zero-interest, fee-heavy checking accounts?
But the data over these years has slapped me in the face and taught me what it means to view history calmly.
That research from Cornell University completely changed my cognitive

The争夺候选人 for the Federal Reserve Chair always triggers my thoughts on historical cycles. Seeing the probability of Haskett rising from 54% to 61%, I recall those decision moments before and after the 2008 financial crisis—each shift in monetary policy direction profoundly changing the subsequent market rhythm.
Do you remember the policy trajectories of Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell over the years? From quantitative easing to balance sheet reduction, from zero interest rates to aggressive rate hikes, each chairman's style shapes the shape of the cycle. Now, with Haskett, the Chair of the Economi

#比特币机构建仓 Looking at this round of combined downturns, I feel a bit emotional. Forced liquidations, legislative hurdles, policy uncertainties—I've heard these words back in 2017, heard them again in 2018, and now in 2024, they are still being repeated.
What truly makes me ponder is MicroStrategy's predicament. I remember when Michael Saylor announced the institutional accumulation of Bitcoin loudly, the market cheered and celebrated, as if it was a signal that institutional funds were entering. But now, concerns over equity dilution have overshadowed the positive news of increased holdings—wha