#比特币价格走势 Seeing Saylor's remarks, what flashed through my mind was the shadow of the 2013 market rally. Back then, some people confidently claimed Bitcoin would reach $10,000, only to experience a long bear market afterward. I'm not saying he was wrong, but the logic behind such predictions is worth a closer look.

The Strategy of accumulating 5% to push the price to 1 million sounds very tempting on the surface—large institutional holdings can indeed alter market supply and demand. But I've seen similar stories in historical cycles: every time, new whales enter the market, and someone always says "this time is different." In the end, Bitcoin's price is still determined by more complex factors.

I don't deny the positive significance of institutions accumulating coins; it has indeed changed Bitcoin's narrative. Since MicroStrategy's first large purchase in 2020, the overall ecosystem's recognition has been increasing. But jumping from 5% to $1 million—honestly, it's like the predictions of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 back then—perhaps the direction is right, but the timing, the path, and the intermediate fluctuations are often overestimated.

What’s truly interesting is observing how these institutional behaviors influence the price discovery mechanism. If Strategy really increases its holdings again, it's not a direct factor pushing the price up, but a reaffirmation of market confidence in institutions. Having experienced the 2017 bubble, the 2018 crash, and the rollercoaster of 2021, I care more about whether this round of accumulation is driven by real demand or just another cyclical optimism. History tells us to always stay sober when others are wildly optimistic.