#数字资产行情上升 Gold Midday Observation: Can the Dollar Rebound Stop the Rate Cut Wave? 4400 Becomes Today’s Key Level

Starting the morning with shorts from around 4470, by midday, gold prices touched a low of 4433, gaining $36 on a single trade. Behind this correction are actually three forces at play — the bulls taking profits, passive selling triggered by index adjustments, and the short-term rebound of the US dollar index.

But none of these can suppress a bigger expectation: the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut interest rates in March. When real interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, which is positive for gold that bears no interest. Plus, global central banks are still continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks remain, so the market sees this dip as a good opportunity to jump in.

**What’s Next? Three Possible Scenarios**

If the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data disappoints and falls significantly below expectations, the rate cut expectation will heat up further, the dollar may not withstand the pressure, and gold prices could quickly retake previous highs. If the data is just average, then bulls and bears will likely tug back and forth between 4400 and 4500, with CPI and the Federal Reserve meeting providing the real direction. If the data exceeds expectations strongly, the rate cut hopes will be dampened, the dollar could strengthen, and gold might test the 4350 level.

**How to Trade in Practice**

Gradually add long positions in the 4400 to 4420 range, with stops below 4380. The first target is 4450; if it holds steady, keep holding. If it can’t break through, consider switching to short positions.

The most critical thing now is to wait for the real signals from the data and policy developments.