#比特币价格波动 Looking at the performance in Q4, I feel a bit emotional. A 22% decline, this is indeed one of the weakest Q4s since 2018. I still remember those years when the end of the year was usually a strong window for Bitcoin, but this time, even with a rebound to nearly $90,000, the market's reaction seems unusually indifferent — this is not a recovery, just a technical rebound after a sharp correction.

The key point is that this rebound has not attracted real funds to re-enter the market. The rebound following the previous continuous decline is essentially a natural response to extreme overselling, not a rebuilding of market confidence. From a historical cycle perspective, when liquidity tightens and macro uncertainties increase, the end of the year often becomes a window for risk release. The frequent retracements we see during the US trading hours are a reflection of this logic.

The bearish sentiment in the English community also confirms this. The $86,000 support level, which has been repeatedly tested over the past five weeks, is still being challenged, indicating a lack of clear directional consensus in the market. In contrast, the 2017 rally brought excitement across the entire community, but the current atmosphere is clearly different — traders' disappointment with market weakness has become the mainstream voice.

Sometimes history reminds us that not all rebounds are worth chasing, and the true bottom often takes time to confirm.