#Gate广场创作者新春激励 The current core contradiction in the market is between the “upward trend of ETH” and the “sideways stalemate of BTC.” The key driver behind this contradiction is the reallocation of institutional funds—after all, in the crypto market, institutional funds are the true “price setters.”

Four core logical reasons behind the market trend:
Why do institutions favor ETH? This divergence is no coincidence; the four core reasons have long been laid out. Those who understand are already starting to position themselves:
1. Institutional capital rotation: The “value gap” from BTC to ETH. According to recent market data, Bitcoin spot ETFs still show net inflows, but the inflow scale has significantly decreased compared to earlier; in contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs have maintained steady net inflows for several days, indicating an increasing rotation of institutional funds from BTC to ETH. Why are institutions “switching their affection”? The core reason is “valuation and cost-effectiveness”: after a prior surge, BTC’s valuation is relatively high, and the psychological pressure of the 100,000 level makes institutions hesitant to increase their positions recklessly; meanwhile, ETH’s gains lagged behind BTC’s earlier, and it remains in a “value gap,” with ongoing improvements in its ecosystem boosting long-term institutional recognition of its value. A crypto fund manager publicly stated: “Currently, ETH/BTC valuation is at a historic low, and allocating to ETH is akin to bottom-fishing for institutions’ ‘backup positions’.”
2. Technical divergence: ETH’s breakout momentum versus BTC’s consolidation. The technical differences further reinforce the trend divergence: ETH successfully broke through the key $3,300 level, with a continuation of the daily ascending flag pattern, and the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart opening upward with a bullish alignment of moving averages, indicating a clear short-term upward trend; BTC, on the other hand, is stuck in a “consolidation stalemate,” with the daily Bollinger Bands narrowing continuously, and the hourly moving averages entangled, EMA7 converging with EMA30. Under such a pattern, markets often experience rapid breakouts—either breaking the sideways range to start a new trend or triggering a phase correction.
3. Market linkage effect: ETH breaking free from BTC’s influence and moving independently. Historically, the crypto market often follows “BTC rises, all coins rise; BTC falls, all coins fall,” but this pattern has recently been broken. Currently, the total crypto market cap remains between $3.2 trillion and $3.3 trillion, with BTC consolidating in the $94,000-$96,000 range, yet ETH has not been dragged down—this indicates ETH is breaking free from BTC’s influence and moving independently. The emergence of this independent trend is partly due to ETH’s own strong capital absorption capacity, and partly reflects the market’s diversified capital allocation needs: institutions are no longer solely focused on BTC but are exploring investment opportunities in other mainstream coins.
4. On-chain data evidence: Light ETH selling pressure and stable BTC holdings. On-chain data further validates the trend logic: large transfers on the ETH chain are active, whale addresses’ holdings are stable, and selling pressure is relatively limited, providing solid long-term support; for BTC, mining hash power remains high, whale holdings are also stable, and selling pressure is not significant, but the lack of incremental capital inflow has caused prices to stagnate.

Technical deep-dive: Key levels determine life or death, operational windows are clear. For ordinary investors, there’s no need to worry about long-term trends; focusing on key levels can help avoid most risks. We analyze ETH and BTC’s technicals separately, clarifying different cycle operation windows:

【Ethereum (ETH): Breakout momentum, 3280 is the vital line】
Daily chart: EMA30 support at $3,250, Bollinger Bands mid-line at $3,135, upper band at $3,390, MACD continues to expand, upward trend remains intact; breaking through the $3,310-$3,390 range could open new upside space, targeting $3,400.
Four-hour chart: Short-term support at $3,280 (EMA30), lower band at $3,250, upper band at $3,350, MACD golden cross formed, short-term oscillation leaning bullish; if it dips to the $3,250-$3,200 range, it’s an excellent low-entry opportunity.
Hourly chart: Bollinger Bands opening upward, moving averages aligned bullishly, EMA7 crossing above EMA30 to form support, short-term upward trend is clear; caution is needed around the $3,330-$3,350 resistance zone to avoid chasing highs blindly.

【Bitcoin (BTC): Waiting for a breakout, 94200 is the critical line】
Daily chart: EMA30 support at $94,200, Bollinger Bands mid-line at $91,500, upper band at $97,000, MACD continues to expand, upward trend not broken but entering a contraction phase; a breakout above $96,000-$97,000 is needed to open new space, otherwise, it may continue sideways.
Four-hour chart: Short-term support at $94,500 (EMA30), lower band at $93,700, upper band at $97,500, MACD death cross expanding, short-term oscillation leaning bearish; focus on defending the neckline at $94,200—if broken, it could drop directly to $93,000-$92,000.
Hourly chart: Bollinger Bands are extremely contracted, moving averages tangled, increasing the risk of a trend reversal; prioritize watching for a breakout in the $94,000-$96,000 range, and avoid frequent trading before a clear breakout.

Practical operation strategy guide: Light positions are key. These two ranges are the core operation windows. Currently, market sentiment is neutral, with 24-hour liquidation mainly in long positions, so risk should not be underestimated. The core principle is “light positions + strict stop-loss,” with specific strategies as follows:
1. ETH trading strategy
Bullish: After stabilizing in the $3,280-$3,250 range, add light long positions, with stop-loss below $3,250 (around 40 points), targeting $3,330-$3,350; if broken, aim for $3,390.
Bearish: After encountering resistance in the $3,350-$3,400 range, add light short positions, with stop-loss above $3,400 (around 40 points), targeting $3,300-$3,280; if broken, look at $3,250.
2. BTC trading strategy
Bullish: After stabilizing in the $94,200-$93,700 range, add light long positions, with stop-loss below $93,500 (around 500 points), targeting $95,500-$96,000; if broken, aim for $97,000.
Bearish: After encountering resistance in the $96,000-$97,000 range, add light short positions, with stop-loss above $97,500 (around 500 points), targeting $95,000-$94,200; if broken, look at $93,000.
3. Universal risk control rules
① Keep positions within 30%, regardless of long or short; do not operate with full positions.
② Strictly set stop-loss orders—avoid any luck-based thinking to prevent being wiped out by sudden volatility.
③ During market reversal periods, avoid chasing highs or selling lows; patiently wait for clear breakout signals.
④ Closely monitor the linkage effect between the two main coins; if one breaks a key level, promptly adjust the other’s operation strategy.

Follow-up focus: These 3 things will determine the next market trend:
1. ETH spot ETF fund flow: This is the core logic supporting ETH’s strength. If funds continue to flow in net, ETH’s upward trend will persist; if funds flow out, watch out for a correction.
2. BTC key level breakthroughs: Breaking above $96,000-$97,000 will determine whether BTC attempts to reach the $100,000 mark; a break below the neckline at $94,200 could trigger a deep correction, potentially dragging down the entire crypto market.
3. ETH and BTC linkage effect: If ETH falls below the strong support at $3,250, it could drag BTC down; if ETH breaks through $3,390 and opens space, it may also drive BTC out of sideways consolidation.