Market | Why Analysts Doubt a 2018 or 2022-Style Bear Market Analysts arguing that Bitcoin is unlikely to repeat the deep bear markets of 2018 or 2022 are not dismissing downside risk—they are pointing to structural differences. Previous bear markets were fueled by: Excessive retail leverage Weak institutional participation Fragile market infrastructure Today’s environment looks different. Institutional custody solutions are established, derivatives markets are more regulated, and long-term holders control a larger share of supply. While corrections remain inevitable, the probability of prolonged multi-year drawdowns appears lower. This doesn’t mean BTC is immune to volatility—but it suggests that future downturns may resemble cyclical resets rather than existential collapses.
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Market | Why Analysts Doubt a 2018 or 2022-Style Bear Market
Analysts arguing that Bitcoin is unlikely to repeat the deep bear markets of 2018 or 2022 are not dismissing downside risk—they are pointing to structural differences.
Previous bear markets were fueled by:
Excessive retail leverage
Weak institutional participation
Fragile market infrastructure
Today’s environment looks different. Institutional custody solutions are established, derivatives markets are more regulated, and long-term holders control a larger share of supply. While corrections remain inevitable, the probability of prolonged multi-year drawdowns appears lower.
This doesn’t mean BTC is immune to volatility—but it suggests that future downturns may resemble cyclical resets rather than existential collapses.