#我在Gate广场过新年 Is the bottom-fishing opportunity here after the oversold condition?

Bitcoin's continuous plunge has pushed the market into extreme pessimism. Currently, Bitcoin's price has not only broken below the key psychological level of $70,000 but also pierced through the ETF average holding cost and MSTR's cost basis. The technical indicators show a severe oversold state: the monthly MACD death cross continues to deepen, the CCI indicator has fallen below -120, and the KDJ indicator forms a typical bearish alignment.
Market prediction platforms indicate that there is an 82% chance Bitcoin will fall below $65,000 this year, and a 60% chance it will drop below $55,000.
However, amidst extreme pessimism, some market signals suggest that Bitcoin may have already entered a "bottoming out" phase. According to historical patterns, when long-term bears are collectively celebrating and market sentiment hits rock bottom, it often signals an approaching market bottom. Previously, Bitcoin experienced a monthly decline of 23.27%, creating a strong short-term oversold rebound demand. The key support levels around $68,000 and $65,000 have also become important focal points for market funds.
Nevertheless, many industry insiders warn that bottom-fishing still requires extreme caution. Former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry bluntly stated that one should not rush into the market based solely on headlines about bears. Bitcoin's bottoming process often takes time, and the current market still faces multiple uncertainties: the Federal Reserve's policy has not yet clearly shifted, institutional funds are still withdrawing, and MSTR's debt crisis and potential coin sales could trigger a new round of declines.
Market analysis suggests that for Bitcoin to truly stabilize, three major conditions must be met:
1. Hold the key support at $65,000 with clear volume expansion and rebound signals;
2. ETF fund flows turn positive, with institutional re-entry;
3. MSTR's debt crisis is alleviated, easing market concerns over its coin sales.
In the short term, Bitcoin may oscillate and build a bottom between $65,000 and $80,000. A genuine trend reversal still depends on the dual improvement of macroeconomic conditions and market funds.

From the all-time high of $120,000 to the low of $60,000, Bitcoin's current plunge is not just a significant price correction but also a process of the cryptocurrency market returning from "mania" to "rationality."
The frenzy of bears and the panic of bulls reflect a market re-evaluating the value of cryptocurrencies. For investors, the most critical thing now is not rushing to bottom-fish but managing positions and implementing risk controls.
The inherent high volatility of cryptocurrencies has never changed. During the market's bottoming phase, it is better to patiently wait for clear trend signals rather than chase short-term rebound gains. For the entire industry, this plunge is not entirely a bad thing—after squeezing out the bubbles, truly valuable technologies and ecosystems will stand out during the industry reshuffle.