New Polymarket Wallet Places $180K Bet Against U.S. Strike on Iran by March 2026

Bitcoin Price Predictions Flip Bullish, But Ethereum Is Still Stuck

Predictors have turned bullish on Bitcoin's near-term price, suggesting a rise to $84,000 before a potential drop. However, analysts remain divided on sustainability, while sentiment for Ethereum is bearish, with expectations of a decline to $1,500.

Polymarket pre-market prediction: WBC Australia will win. Taiwanese baseball fans learned a lesson in prediction markets.

The Chinese Taipei team lost 0:3 to Australia in their first game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic, disappointing fans. The prediction market Polymarket shows Australia's win probability at 64%. However, traditional Taiwanese betting odds suggest that the Chinese Taipei team has a 70% chance of winning, indicating the influence of supporter bias. Analysis points out that Polymarket's predictions are more accurate, reflecting the benefits of diverse participants and data analysis, and highlighting the future potential of prediction markets.

Bloomberg: Prediction market track rapidly emerging, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion form a three-way competition

PANews March 5 News, according to Bloomberg, prediction markets have experienced rapid growth over the past year, attracting widespread attention including from traditional financial institutions. The main platforms in the industry currently include Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion, which are seen as the primary competitors in the market landscape. The report points out that as the regulatory environment gradually becomes clearer and trading demand around macro events and hot topics continues to grow, prediction markets are becoming an important new frontier at the intersection of the crypto industry and traditional finance.

Senator Chris Murphy questions insider trading related to Iran airstrike predictions in the prediction market, with million-dollar bets sparking controversy over "White House corruption"

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy expressed concern over prediction market trading ahead of military actions against Iran, accusing large bets of potentially involving insider information and leading to corruption that profits from war. He mentioned that certain accounts placed precise bets before the airstrikes and reaped huge profits, calling for legislation to restrict such transactions to protect national security. This has sparked widespread discussion in U.S. politics about war powers and transparency.

Polymarket nuclear explosion contract attracts $650,000 in trading! Sparks ethical and insider controversy, official removal in emergency.

Polymarket has sparked public controversy for listing nuclear explosion prediction contracts, being accused of exploiting human survival crises for speculation. The platform removed the contracts on March 4 and is facing regulatory pressure. Analysts point out that the platform may become a channel for insider trading, threatening the reputation of prediction markets. U.S. regulatory agencies plan to further regulate prediction markets, emphasizing the need to strike a balance between ethics and legality.

Kalshi refuses $54 million payout, insider trading controversy heats up in prediction markets

The prediction market platform Kalshi refused to pay users' expected $54 million payout, citing that its contract "exit" definition does not include assassination scenarios. The incident has sparked insider trading allegations against competitor Polymarket. U.S. senators plan to introduce legislation to ban prediction contracts related to government actions, arguing that such markets distort public judgment.