#贵金属领涨 Intraday Rally! Iran Situation Takes New Turn! What's the Logic Behind the Gold Surge?

Today (March 25), intraday, as signals of easing tensions in Iran emerged, the US dollar index weakened, and the precious metals market surged significantly. As of press time, spot gold rose over 2%, COMEX gold futures climbed nearly 3%; spot silver rose over 3%, COMEX silver futures jumped over 5%. What will happen to gold prices going forward?

Earlier reports indicated that the US is seeking a one-month ceasefire to conduct negotiations with Iran. On the 24th, US President Trump told media at the White House that the US and Iran are in negotiations, and Iran has "agreed to permanently renounce nuclear weapons." A day earlier, Trump claimed the US and Iran had held dialogue. However, this statement was promptly denied by Iran. On the 24th, Israel's Channel 12 television, citing informed sources, reported that the US proposed to Iran an agreement aimed at ending the war covering 15 points, including Iran's commitment to never develop nuclear weapons and opening the Strait of Hormuz as a "free waterway," among others.

The US New York Times cited informed officials saying the plan has been delivered to Iran via Pakistan. It remains unclear whether Iran will accept it and use it as a basis for negotiations, nor whether Israel approves of its contents.

Additionally, The Wall Street Journal cited Arab officials and a US official familiar with the discussions, reporting that mediators from Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are working to arrange a meeting between US and Iranian officials within the next 48 hours, despite the two sides remaining far apart in positions.

What's next for gold prices?

Over the previous 10+ trading days, gold prices declined sharply. On Monday this week, spot gold prices briefly fell below $4,100 per ounce, dropping over 20% from early March highs. Rising energy prices due to Middle East tensions have exacerbated inflation risks, leading investors to bet on higher interest rates. This poses headwinds for non-yielding gold. Declines in global stocks and bonds have also forced investors to liquidate gold positions to raise cash, further amplifying the decline in gold prices.

Like most asset classes, gold prices have experienced volatile swings as traders face a stream of war-related headlines. Even as Trump claims negotiations to end the conflict are underway, fighting between the US-Israel alliance and Iran continues intensely. Frank Moncam, global macro strategies and trading head at Buffalo Bay Commodity Company, stated that hawkish repricing of US monetary policy expectations and dollar strength from rising yields are among the drivers of recent gold pullbacks.

Moncam noted that more critically, gold price volatility has been exacerbated by retail investor deleveraging and selling by emerging market participants (including central banks), who are liquidating gold to replenish foreign exchange reserves amid soaring oil prices.

On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Turkey's central bank has discussed gold-for-currency swap transactions in the London market, possibly to defend the lira against volatility related to Iran conflicts. Despite gold's recent declines, it previously experienced prolonged gains, supported by geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as strong central bank purchases. Some gold-accumulating countries are energy importers, meaning rising oil and gas bills from war leave fewer dollars available for reinvestment in gold.

Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that recent gold prices have continued to weaken. On one hand, gold had previously risen significantly and may face liquidity shocks as risk sentiment declines; on the other hand, market expectations of monetary policy tightening pushing real rates higher are also bearish for gold. In the short term, gold may face periodic pressure from Iran situation developments, but if long-term inflation expectations warm up, it may return to a favorable environment for gold. The medium to long-term logic for gold appreciation remains solid. It's worth watching for allocation opportunities as gold declines amid volatility.

China Minsheng Bank Research indicates that gold's subsequent trend is highly dependent on US-Iran war developments, with three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Prolonged strait blockade. If the conflict escalates and the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded long-term, oil prices will continue soaring, potentially triggering stagflation concerns similar to the 1970s, even shaking market confidence in US fiscal credit. Gold would experience short-term tightening shocks but then gain long opportunities from "sell the US + anti-stagflation" attributes.

Scenario 2: US-led swift victory. If the US quickly gains control or US-Iran ceasefire is reached quickly, oil prices may spike and retreat. Rate hike expectations would be corrected. Gold should escape current downtrend and return to its original moderate uptrend.

Scenario 3: Inflation without stagnation. If high oil prices only push inflation but the US economy shows resilience (similar to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict), markets will continue pricing in rate hike expectations, and gold will likely enter a downward channel.

In summary, the market is currently pricing in the most certain inflation trade in the short term, and gold's downside risks remain in release. Medium-term focus should be on war duration and economic impact—whether sustained high oil prices will inflict "stagnation" shocks on the economy is key to determining if gold can reverse course.