$BTC Looking back at the Russia-Ukraine war, and previously Israel-Palestine and Israel-Iran conflicts, with various wars every year causing market noise, what truly affects BTC price is actually liquidity—everything else is just noise.

In my view, for the midterm elections, Trump would want this Middle East conflict to end before June. Once oil prices come down, it will be easy to manage expectations for rate cuts, and the entire market can continue to ATH. That leaves less than 6 months for a pullback and consolidation.

The time for sideways movement will most likely show direction by early May. Whether it's a 1-2-3 pattern, a 2B breakout above the downtrend line, or another leg down to LTH-RP (this value keeps changing, from 38k at the start of the year to 48k now, I estimate it will be above 50k by May), these are all excellent trading opportunities. I'm hoping to see a break below long-term holders' realized value so I can accumulate enough cheap spot holdings on the left side.

As for adding leverage, I'm still waiting for the right-side opportunity to appear. Currently, the MA120 price is 80952 and the STH-RP price is 85433. When BTC volume breaks through both of these indicators, I will go all-in on longs without hesitation. If it breaks below, I'll stop loss. Just mechanically repeat. The backtest win rate is only 30%, but profit/loss ratio is greater than 20, which completely aligns with a trading system that chases rallies, cuts losses, makes big profits and small losses, and compounds continuously.

This cycle, I'm putting more energy into refining BTC on-chain data and trading systems, giving up research into altcoin projects and FOMO, earning more stable profits.