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This round can't repeat the mistakes from last round. We can't keep fantasizing that Wall Street will enter and directly pump the price to 200k. Now we also can't fantasize that BTC's price will definitely drop below the LTH-RP by 20% like in previous years. Based on current prices, that would be roughly 48000-9600=38400. Starting from 48k on the left side, we should begin buying, purchasing 10% of spot position with every 10k drop. How could the next cycle possibly not be profitable?
Market movements are unpredictable; we can only follow the flow. Our own trading system needs to be capable of
BTC-3,52%
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$BTC Looking back at the Russia-Ukraine war, and previously Israel-Palestine and Israel-Iran conflicts, with various wars every year causing market noise, what truly affects BTC price is actually liquidity—everything else is just noise.
In my view, for the midterm elections, Trump would want this Middle East conflict to end before June. Once oil prices come down, it will be easy to manage expectations for rate cuts, and the entire market can continue to ATH. That leaves less than 6 months for a pullback and consolidation.
The time for sideways movement will most likely show direction by early
BTC-3,52%
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I had a conversation with my family yesterday. They want me to continue in the traditional business sector and take over the family business—they're at the age where they want to retire. But I still think I should focus on investing instead. I even suggested they sell the company and just put the proceeds directly into index funds and call it a day.
I'm not sure if I'm right or wrong about this. Maybe my personality is just better suited for investing anyway.
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These past few years, Chuanzi has really let me experience what they mean by "words become law in capital markets"...
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I personally believe the low point will appear in the first half of the year. After consolidating for a few months, following the positive catalysts from the midterm elections, a new cycle will begin.
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Gold and silver have both crashed, so what the hell is BTC still pretending for?!
BTC-3,52%
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I always feel like TACO's time is getting closer...
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Honestly, the Claw bot has already slowed down a lot. Back in 2024 when I used multi-opening on Apple, the built-in AI plugins could already be integrated with various AI models. Not only could they achieve single AI conversations, but they could also utilize AI features when chatting with regular users.
The next step will likely be opening up the simplest AI to regular users as personal assistants. The current version of Claw bot is still too complicated and falls far short of the product standard of treating users as if they're not tech-savvy.
I'm increasingly excited about the future. In th
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It's still better to wait until the end of the year. There's one last major crash coming down the road. A bull market return is impossible.
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Volume and Price Trading Mnemonic - Seven Sentences:
At low prices with no volume, wait. Even if you wait wrong, keep waiting.
At high prices with no volume, hold. Even if you hold wrong, keep holding.
At low prices with volume expansion, follow. Even if you follow wrong, keep following.
At high prices with volume expansion, exit. Even if you exit wrong, keep exiting.
Volume increases and price rises, buy. Volume increases and price falls, sell.
Volume increases and price flat, expect reversal down. Volume flat and price rises, add position.
Finally, volume flat and price falls, exit position.
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Isn't it that you think the bull market is back again? Smash it for me!
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The recent rebound shows $sui and $ondo still have relatively good trading volume, so I think the next performance won't be too bad either.
SUI-4,89%
ONDO0,69%
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That's really harsh🤦‍♂️, you should at least go up and wipe out the short liquidity before coming back down; now I'm not even comfortable with this rebound.
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If the US Dollar Index breaks through 100, the next few months will be very painful. So BTC is likely a bull trap, and once it reaches around 78,500 to wipe out all stop losses, it will start to dump.
BTC-3,52%
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Last time I didn't stretch after working out and injured my chest, and my breathing and heart were hurting. I thought I was having a heart attack and went to the emergency room for a CT scan overnight. This time I hurt my tailbone while doing leg exercises, and now getting up is incredibly painful😭.
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It's really tough, truly tough. The weekly RSI is already at a very extreme bottom zone, waiting for a deep dip, waiting to wipe out the bulls, waiting for a divergence.
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The golden dip will appear soon; cherish the opportunity of the new cycle.
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Midterm elections are in November. Historical data (such as the performance of the S&P 500) shows that the stock market trend 90 days before the election is highly predictive of whether the ruling party can retain its seat:
If the stock market steadily rises from August to October, it is usually seen as a sign that investors have confidence in the current government's policies (such as the OBBBA tax reform or AI infrastructure investments).
If the stock market remains highly volatile in October, even a rebound in early November may not alleviate voters' fears about economic uncertainty.
Starti
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AI is an enhancement of productivity, while encryption is an improvement of the production relations; the two are complementary and mutually reinforcing. The only certainty is that both will promote long-term economic development and also lead to money printing.
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The backtest here uses the CSI 300, and this point needs to be emphasized. The right-side trading system should be built on a long-term bullish asset that aligns with economic principles. In the crypto world, I believe only BTC fits these economic laws. It's simple—currency is overissued, BTC has a limited supply and is constantly being lost, and consensus continues to strengthen.
All strategies, in the long run, only the right-side strategy can achieve compound interest and control drawdowns. The left-side strategy is like a battlefield for most manual retail traders—once you're in, it's ve
BTC-3,52%
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