#国际油价重拾升势 Goldman Sachs repeatedly issues bullish reports on oil prices, suggesting that a high oil price era may persist long-term

Since March this year, international oil prices have increased by over 30%, exerting a profound impact on the global economic landscape. Recently, Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, has released multiple reports, based on an assessment of supply disruption risks, further raising oil price expectations and predicting that the high oil price environment may be sustained for the long term.
In the reports, Goldman Sachs pointed out that the upward revision of oil price forecasts is mainly based on two core logics: first, the assumption that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will only maintain normal levels at 5% for a period of up to 6 weeks, and it will take another month to gradually recover afterward;
second, the market has deeply recognized the risks associated with highly concentrated oil production and remaining capacity, which will drive structural increases in strategic oil reserves and a long-term upward trend in forward oil prices.
As of 3:00 AM Beijing time on March 25, international oil prices experienced a pullback and narrow fluctuations after a sharp rise. The main contract price for WTI crude oil was around $88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil was around $95 per barrel, both down more than 5% from the previous day. Domestic futures markets for energy products also saw a corresponding decline, with liquefied gas, fuel oil, ethylene glycol, and other products leading the fall. However, compared to the beginning of the year, energy product prices have risen significantly, with Brent crude oil and Shanghai crude oil futures still up over 60% year-to-date.
Goldman Sachs believes that during supply disruptions, the market needs to continuously increase risk premiums to stimulate preventive demand contraction, thereby hedging against shortages in scenarios of long-term supply interruptions. It is expected that the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $110 per barrel from March to April, a 62% increase over the average price for the entire year of 2025. Regarding the future trend of oil prices, Goldman Sachs predicts that high oil prices will be maintained long-term.
The firm has also raised its oil price forecast for 2026, expecting the average Brent crude oil price for the year to be $85 per barrel and WTI to be $79 per barrel; the Q4 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI are respectively raised to $80 and $75 per barrel. The upward revision is mainly driven by the expanding impact on commercial oil inventories and the risk-adjusted forward oil prices after market adjustments for effective remaining capacity.
Looking ahead to 2027, Goldman Sachs expects the annual average prices of Brent and WTI to remain at $80 and $75 per barrel, respectively. Regarding the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy, Goldman Sachs focused on the Chinese market. Although nearly 50% of China’s oil imports are transported via the Strait of Hormuz, 60% of China’s total energy consumption comes from coal, which is largely domestically produced. Coupled with ample oil inventories and fiscal regulatory measures, this reduces the sensitivity of economic growth to oil prices. Nevertheless, a sharp rise in oil and gas prices will still push up inflation levels.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that rising oil and gas prices will help end China’s PPI year-on-year decline, raising the full-year 2026 CPI and PPI inflation forecasts to 1%, higher than the initial estimates of 0.6% and -0.7%. In terms of export trade, Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that low-income emerging economies, lacking large-scale oil inventories and fiscal subsidies, are most vulnerable to high oil prices, which could lead to a slowdown in China’s exports to these regions in the coming quarters.
From a medium-term perspective, energy price volatility will prompt oil-importing countries to strengthen energy supply security. China’s leading position in key industries such as electric vehicles, batteries, and power generation equipment is expected to benefit from the warming global demand.