#创作者冲榜 Gold once again fell below 4420, and silver dropped over 2%. What's going on!?

Financial News Agency ( North America ) Report: On Monday (March 30), during Asian trading hours, international gold and silver prices both declined. As the US-Iran conflict enters its fifth week with no signs of ending in sight, market risk appetite and inflation expectations continue to fluctuate. After a rebound in the previous trading session, precious metals came under pressure again. Spot gold briefly fell over $70 to a low of $4419.57 per ounce, after rising 2.7% in the previous session; spot silver fell even more, dropping about 2% during the session to $67.650 per ounce.

Concerns over further escalation of Middle East conflicts mainly stem from market expectations that the US may be considering launching a ground attack on Iran. On Thursday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon would send an additional 10,000 troops toward Iran. In response, Iranian Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolghadri warned on Iranian state television: “US soldiers will become the Persian Gulf sharks’ dinner.” However, according to the Financial Times, U.S. President Trump remains confident about the situation and said Washington may reach an agreement with Iran soon. Trump stated in an interview: “Progress is being made in indirect negotiations through intermediaries.” He also added, “An agreement could be reached very soon.”

Gold Price Retreats: Safe-Haven Buying and High-Interest Rate Worries Continue to Battle
Market analysis suggests that after one of the most intense sell-offs in recent years, the gold market is beginning to attract some bargain buyers on dips. However, concerns about prolonged conflict have not eased, especially as high oil prices could further boost inflation, forcing major central banks to maintain high interest rates or even adopt tighter policies. This puts clear pressure on gold, which does not generate interest income. As the conflict enters its second month, countries like Pakistan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have held weekend consultations to de-escalate the situation, but no substantial easing has occurred. Some areas in Tehran experienced power outages after missile strikes, Houthi forces in Yemen officially entered the conflict, and U.S. troops continue to reinforce Middle East deployments; meanwhile, Iran also attacked aluminum smelting facilities in Bahrain and the UAE, further fueling market fears of regional spillover. Despite a slight rebound in gold prices last week, since the outbreak of this round of conflict, gold has still fallen approximately 15%. Its overall trend is more aligned with stock market performance and shows an inverse relationship with oil prices. Analysts point out that the economic impact of soaring energy prices is strengthening market expectations of further Fed rate hikes, which is a key factor suppressing gold performance. Additionally, reports indicate that the Turkish central bank sold and swapped about 60 tons of gold in the first two weeks after the outbreak of war, worth over $8 billion. If more central banks follow suit and reduce their gold reserves, it could weaken one of the main drivers supporting gold prices in recent years and shake market confidence in the long-term view that “central banks are generally reluctant to sell gold.”

Institutional View: Short-term Gold Prices May Remain Highly Volatile; Silver Is in a Bottoming and Recovery Phase

Jateen Trivedi, Vice President of Commodities and Forex Research at LKP Securities, said that overall, gold remains slightly strong, maintaining above $4425, with intraday highs near $4475, initially supported by market optimism about US-Iran negotiations. However, the sharp rise in oil prices still reflects deep-seated tension and inflation risks. He pointed out that although gold has rebounded, overall market sentiment remains cautious, and macro factors still favor a high-interest-rate environment. Until inflation prospects and geopolitical tensions clarify, gold prices are likely to remain highly volatile with limited upside potential. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, stated that COMEX gold is currently in a key range between $4400 and $4500. After a significant correction from above $5500, signs of bottoming are emerging. The trend shows selling pressure is gradually being absorbed, but prices are still below key short-term moving averages, indicating a short-term weak pattern that has not fully reversed. The recent rebound from below $4200 also suggests buying interest at lower levels, with bulls trying to regain control. Regarding silver, Ponmudi noted that COMEX silver is trading in the $68 to $72 range. After a major correction, it has begun to stabilize. The trend shows selling pressure has eased, and the market is attempting to build a bottom and recover, but prices remain constrained by key short-term moving averages, meaning the current rebound is more of a gradual recovery rather than a confirmed reversal. Nonetheless, recent low-level rebounds indicate increasing buying interest.

Gold Technical Analysis
Financial website FXStreet pointed out that during early trading hours, spot gold (XAU/USD) fell to around $4445. In the short term, gold remains bearish, having broken below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently near $4735 and acts as a dynamic resistance. Since retreating from the $5300 level, gold has continued to close lower, indicating a downtrend has been gradually established after losing the previous consolidation zone near $4900. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 20.00 to 40.00 range, showing that selling pressure is still strong, and suggesting that before momentum is truly exhausted, gold could still see further downside. Initial resistance is around $4736, aligning with the 20-day moving average and previous breakout levels; if a technical rebound occurs, the next resistance is at $4915. A daily close above $4915 would weaken the current bearish structure and open space for further rebound toward $5080. On the downside, initial support is near the March 24 low of $4307; if broken, the next target would be around the March 23 low of $4100. Overall, as long as gold remains within the resistance zone of $4736 to $4915, the short-term trend will continue to be dominated by bears.