#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Bitcoin Apparent Demand Drops to Record Low; What Will Happen Next?

Bitcoin (Bitcoin's apparent demand has fallen to its lowest level in 30 days, indicating that long-term investors have surrendered since April 6. On April 5, Bitcoin's apparent demand (30-day total) dropped to its lowest level in four weeks, approximately -87,592.6 BTC. This indicator shows the difference between newly mined Bitcoins entering circulating supply and Bitcoins that have been idle for over a year. Starting from crypto quantification, as a comparison, this indicator was about -15,099 BTC on March 5, meaning it worsened by approximately 5.8 times over 30 days. The deepening negative value indicates that long-term holders are accelerating the reactivation of tokens, which intensifies supply-side pressure, while current spot demand struggles to absorb this pressure.
Why did Bitcoin's price rebound despite clearly weak demand?
Although Bitcoin's 30-day apparent demand has fallen to its lowest level in the past two days, as of press time, Bitcoin's price has increased by 3.54% in the past 24 hours, trading at $69,230. Additionally, Bitcoin has risen by 2.17% over the past 30 days, suggesting that stronger forces are driving the price up despite weak demand from long-term investors.
Despite seemingly weak market demand, the recent surge in Bitcoin's price is mainly driven by a strengthening leverage market.
Specifically, Bitcoin open interest (OI)—measuring the total value of active contracts held by Bitcoin traders across all exchanges—has surged over the past three days. As of press time, open interest has increased from $21.12 billion to approximately $22.82 billion. This indicator is based on CryptoQuant's data on the changes in BTC price and open interest over the past 24 hours.

What is the likely future trend of Bitcoin's price?
Given that market demand is clearly at a multi-week low and open interest continues to expand, the current rally should be approached with caution.
Historically, leverage-driven price volatility can lead to sharp reversals when positions are liquidated, and on-chain analysts have pointed this out. JA_Maartun has marked that, under the current circumstances, the market reversal probability is relatively high. If spot demand does not recover, the recent price increase lacks a solid structural foundation. This means that if trader sentiment shifts, the market could face rapid deleveraging, as a price increase driven solely by leverage is unsustainable.