Market Risk Insight: Pre-FOMC Selloff & BTC Outlook

One day before the FOMC decision, the market experienced a significant selloff, particularly in megacap tech stocks. Investors are reducing exposure to U.S. equities due to concerns over Trump’s economic policies. Here’s a breakdown of the impact on BTC, DXY, and S&P 500:

1. S&P 500 Declines – Risk-Off Mode Activated

SPX -1.1%, Nasdaq -1.7%, Dow -0.6% → Profit-taking after a two-day rebound.

Megacaps hit their lowest levels since September → Nvidia -3.4% despite ongoing AI expansion.

Import prices exceeded expectations → Inflation remains a risk.

Impact on BTC: Bearish (risk-off sentiment leads investors to reduce exposure to risk assets).

2. Defensive Positioning – Cash Levels Rising

Bank of America reports cash levels at record highs → Investors are reducing exposure to U.S. stocks.

Doubts over AI investments → Expectations for tech sector growth are fading.

Gold reaches an all-time high → Investors are shifting to safe-haven assets.

Impact on BTC: Neutral to bearish (lack of risk appetite may pressure BTC).

3. Treasury Yields & Dollar Mixed – No Clear Catalyst

10Y Yield down 1 bps to 4.29% → Bonds rise, but without significant movement.

DXY fluctuating → Markets await direction from the FOMC.

Impact on BTC: Neutral (no strong momentum from USD or the bond market).

BTC Key Levels: FOMC Impact Outlook

$84,300 - $85,800 (Resistance)

$80,500 (Pivot Zone) → Key level determining short-term trend.

$78,200 - $75,900 (Support) → If the market remains risk-off after the FOMC.

Key Takeaways

If Nasdaq & megacaps continue to decline → BTC could face further downside.

Monitor market reaction to the Fed statement → If hawkish, BTC may drop further.

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