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The truth behind the recent sustained pressure on the Australian dollar: supply and demand imbalance or cyclical rotation? Analysis of the AUD exchange rate outlook
As the fifth-largest trading currency in the world, every move of the Australian dollar (AUD) affects investors' nerves. However, compared to its trading volume activity, the AUD's performance over the past decade has been somewhat underwhelming.
Since early 2013, when it was at 1.05, the AUD has depreciated by over 35% against the US dollar. During the same period, the US dollar index increased by 28.35%, and other major currencies such as the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar have also depreciated against the dollar. This is not just an issue with the AUD but reflects a persistent strong dollar cycle that is profoundly impacting the global foreign exchange landscape.
The Fate of Commodity Currencies: Why is the AUD "Overlooked"?
To understand the AUD's movements, one must understand its identity — as a commodity currency.
Australia's economy is highly dependent on exports of bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal, copper, and natural gas. This means that fluctuations in global raw material prices directly influence the AUD exchange rate. When commodity prices rise, the AUD tends to strengthen; when demand for commodities wanes, the AUD also follows
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Stock valuation is actually very simple: you need to understand the logic behind the Price-to-Earnings ratio.
When it comes to stock investing, the Price-to-Earnings ratio (PE) is probably the most frequently mentioned indicator. Investors often hear comments like "This stock has a PE of only 13 times, it's very cheap" or "That stock has a PE of 30 times, it's too expensive." But is the PE really that simple? Today, let's break down this seemingly complex indicator.
What exactly does the PE measure?
The PE, also called the Price-to-Earnings ratio, abbreviated as PE or PER in English (Price-to-Earning Ratio). Simply put, it answers a question: at the current stock price, how long will it take to recover the invested capital using the company's profits?
From another perspective, a lower PE indicates that the stock price is relatively cheap; a higher PE suggests that the market is willing to pay a premium to hold this stock—usually because investors are optimistic about the company's future growth prospects.
For example, TSMC (2330).
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Global Maritime Shipping Stock Market Analysis | Why Are Major Shipping Companies Worth Watching?
Shipping stocks are driven by the global trade cycle; they perform well during economic prosperity and come under pressure during downturns. In recent years, they have experienced significant volatility. Taking Maersk as an example, its revenue and market value have declined sharply. In the future, shipping stocks will be influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, geopolitical issues, energy costs, and environmental policies. Investors should prefer large enterprises, avoid small-cap stocks, and pay attention to risk indicators such as fleet age. Overall, there may be opportunities to position in shipping stocks at the cycle bottom.
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Central bank policies will dominate sharp foreign exchange fluctuations! Who are the winners: the Yen or the Euro?
This week, the foreign exchange market is set to welcome two major central bank meetings, and the market is already gearing up. Last week (December 8-12), the US dollar index fell by 0.60%, the euro rose by 0.84%, and the Japanese yen declined by 0.29%, showing a divergence pattern among non-USD currencies. The euro's strength also indirectly supported the EUR to RMB exchange rate.
How long can the Eurozone maintain its unchanged policy and keep the euro rising?
Last week's performance review
EUR/USD rose by 0.84% last week, but the driving force was the weakness of the dollar. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the start of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program in December, purchasing $40 billion of short-term government bonds each month. The market interpreted this as a new round of quantitative easing. Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech was also somewhat dovish, leading to a continuous decline in the US dollar index over two trading days.
The latest dot plot has raised market concerns—202
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December 23 Market Scan: Precious metals rise to new highs, tech stocks ramp up AI deployment, yen volatility intensifies amid weak dollar
Global commodities usher in a "Golden Week," with precious metals collectively breaking through key psychological levels. Driven by rising geopolitical risks, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts, and a retreat in the US dollar index, the metal bull market is in full swing.
Precious metals and energy rise together
Gold broke through the $4400 mark, with the latest price at $4443.9/oz, up 2.43%, hitting a new all-time high of $4449. Silver is even more aggressive, rising 2.82% to $69.44/oz, approaching the $70 psychological level. London copper futures also performed strongly, rising to $11,996.18 per ton, up 1.01%.
More notably, the "hidden winners" among precious metals—palladium and platinum—performed remarkably. Spot palladium reached a three-year high again, once hitting $1800.85/oz, up 4.86%; spot platinum also hit a new high, briefly reaching $2096.81/oz.
BTC-1,25%
ETH-2,35%
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Japanese Yen Exchange Guide: Cost Disclosure of 4 Options, Which One is the Most Cost-Effective?
The NT dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate has already hit the 4.85 mark, and the attention to travel to Japan and Yen asset allocation is rising rapidly. However, many people spend more than necessary on their first step—currency exchange—because they don't know the ins and outs. This in-depth article analyzes the four most common exchange channels in Taiwan, using actual cost data to tell you where and when to exchange Yen most wisely.
Do you really understand the value of the Yen?
In Taiwan, the Yen is not just a currency for travel expenses. It plays an important role in personal life and asset allocation.
The most common needs for travelers are: shopping in Tokyo, skiing in Hokkaido, and vacationing in Okinawa. Japan's cash culture remains strong (credit card penetration is only 60%), so carrying cash is still necessary. Additionally, purchasing agents, students studying abroad, and working holidaymakers are the main groups exchanging Yen.
More interestingly, the Yen holds a special status in the financial world—it is one of the three globally recognized safe-haven currencies.
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Is the renminbi depreciation reversal signal here? The USD to RMB exchange rate hits a new low this year
The RMB to USD exchange rate pattern has experienced a turning point. In recent weeks, the USD against the RMB has accelerated its decline, with the offshore market touching a 6.9965 low for the year, and the onshore market also breaking below the 7.0051 threshold. What are the driving forces behind this reversal?
Weak USD, policy guidance, and seasonal foreign exchange settlement three forces combined
The recent RMB appreciation is not accidental. First, the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle has suppressed the strength of the USD. The US dollar index has fallen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, with a decline of over 2% in the past month. Against the backdrop of de-dollarization worldwide, a weak USD has laid the foundation for RMB appreciation.
Second, the stance of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is crucial. The central bank has continuously raised the midpoint of the RMB exchange rate (reference rate), sending a clear signal of expectations for appreciation to the market, which is a policy-level support.
The third driver is the year-end foreign exchange settlement wave. In 2025, China's export trade performed strongly, accumulating a large trade surplus, and as the year-end approaches, companies
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Short or Long? A Dual Trading Strategy Every Investor Must Know
The market is always cycling between rises and falls. Many novice investors have a misconception that you can only make money when prices go up. But experienced traders have long understood that there are opportunities in both bull and bear markets; the key lies in whether you grasp the core logic of going long and going short.
Simply put, going long means buying when expecting prices to rise, while going short means selling when expecting prices to fall. One profits from price increases, the other from price decreases. If the market only allowed one-way operations, the entire financial system would become extremely fragile—crazy bubbles during rises and free falls during declines. It is precisely because of both long and short positions that the market can remain relatively stable.
Let's first discuss the fundamental risks of short selling.
Before delving into how to short, I must honestly say that short selling is a double-edged sword.
Unlimited Losses
This is the most deadly feature of short selling. Investors going long can lose at most their principal—if the stock you bought drops to zero, your loss ends there. But short selling is different; theoretically,
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What exactly is an IPO? A complete analysis of listing requirements and procedures for Hong Kong and US stocks
What does IPO mean?
In financial reports, you often hear about a company launching an IPO, but the meaning and process behind this abbreviation are still unclear to many people.
IPO stands for Initial Public Offering, which refers to the entire process of a private company issuing shares to the public for the first time and transitioning from a private entity to a publicly listed company. This is not only an important way for companies to raise funds but also a key opportunity for private investors to realize gains and cash out.
From a company's perspective, when initial investments can no longer support continued business expansion, the company needs to obtain new capital through external financing. From an investor's perspective, going public provides an opportunity to participate in the growth of high-quality enterprises. Through an IPO, high-quality private company equity that was previously inaccessible is opened up to retail investors, while also helping the issuing company achieve multiple goals such as raising funds, debt repayment, and enhancing its image.
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A Beginner's Guide to Entering Cryptocurrency: What is Crypto Chinese Blockchain and the 7 Most Common Pitfalls You Might Encounter
What exactly is cryptocurrency? Understand it in one sentence
Imagine a "parallel financial world" entirely driven by code. In this world, there are no central banks making decisions; all rules and transactions are recorded on a transparent, public "blockchain" ledger maintained collectively by thousands of computers worldwide. Your assets are not stored in a bank but controlled by a "private key" known only to you.
Simply put, cryptocurrency = decentralization + code-based rules + personal asset autonomy.
Digital currencies (like China's Digital Yuan) are the digital versions of fiat currency issued by the central bank. While they may seem similar, their essence is different—one is a decentralized asset, the other is a government-backed legal tender.
| Feature | Cryptocurrency | Digital Currency |
|---------|------------------|------------------|
| Issuer | Companies/Individuals | Central Bank
BTC-1,25%
ETH-2,35%
XRP-3,4%
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Blockchain Beginner's Guide: Starting from Zero to Understand the Infrastructure of Digital Assets
What exactly is blockchain?
If you haven't figured out what blockchain is, we can think of it this way: it's like a collective ledger, not managed by a bank or a single company, but maintained by thousands of computers worldwide. Every transaction is recorded, unchangeable and irreversible by anyone.
Why is this called "blockchain"? Because transaction data is packaged into "blocks," which are linked together in chronological order using cryptographic techniques to form a "chain." Just like pages in a book, once a page is filled, it becomes a chapter, and many chapters make up a complete book.
How does blockchain work? A transfer example will help you understand.
Suppose you want to send 1 Bitcoin to a friend. The blockchain system processes this in the following steps:
Step 1: Initiate the transaction
You enter in your wallet: your wallet address, the recipient's wallet address, and the transfer amount.
BTC-1,25%
ETH-2,35%
DOT-1,91%
LTC-1,2%
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Candlestick Chart Beginner's Guide: Complete Guide to K-Line Pattern Analysis
Understanding candlestick charts is a fundamental skill for every trader. Whether it's stocks, cryptocurrencies, or other assets, candlestick charts are the core tool for technical analysis. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of various candlestick patterns, analysis methods, and practical trading techniques.
Core Components of Candlestick Charts
Candlestick charts condense the price movement of a time period into four price points: opening price, closing price, highest price, and lowest price. These four data points form the candlestick.
A candlestick consists of two parts:
The real body is the rectangular part, representing the price range between the opening and closing prices. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, the body is red (bullish), otherwise it is green (bearish). It is important to note that color definitions may vary across markets—Taiwan stocks use red for bullish candles, but in US stocks, green is used for bullish candles.
The shadow is the line extending above and below the real body. The upper shadow indicates the highest price during the period, and the lower shadow indicates the lowest price. The length of the shadows
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## Memory Group Surge Focus of Taiwan Stocks: Winbond Electronics Leads NAND Flash Manufacturer Rankings, Fundamental Changes Behind Limit-Up
The supply side of the memory market is undergoing a fundamental shift. International giants are shifting capacity from traditional DRAM and Flash to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to capture the market, leading to a significant global memory supply shortage. Amid this structural shortage, Winbond Electronics, a leading Taiwanese manufacturer in the global NAND Flash ranking, becomes the most direct beneficiary.
### AI demand triggers supply tightness, DDR4
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The RMB appreciates to a new high again, is there room for further appreciation in 2026?
The RMB to USD exchange rate breaks through the important psychological threshold of 7, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar, China's central bank policy guidance, and the year-end foreign exchange settlement surge. Several investment banks expect that by 2026, the RMB still has room for appreciation, implying that future appreciation will become a trend.
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Core Strategies and Practical Guide to Swing Trading
Among many investment methods, swing trading has become the preferred choice for many investors due to its balance of returns and flexibility. Compared to long-term holdings that require years of patience or daily monitoring for intraday trades, swing trading uses medium-term cycles of several weeks to months, leveraging market fluctuations to buy low and sell high, achieving relatively stable profits.
Why is swing trading worth learning?
The appeal of swing trading lies in its practicality. It does not require investors to capture every short-term fluctuation or freeze their funds for years. As long as a stable return of about 50% can be achieved, the goal is met. This "going with the trend" characteristic allows ordinary investors to participate.
The key is that swing trading relies on "events with longer fermentation times"—such as changes in industry fundamentals, policy adjustments, supply and demand imbalances, etc. These events do not reverse in the short term, giving investors ample time to observe, adjust, and profit.
The five major operational strategies of swing trading
BTC-1,25%
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How much does it cost to trade bulk futures? Breakdown of futures transaction fees and platform rate tips
Want to make a fortune in the futures market but get overwhelmed by the myriad of futures commission fees? How should you choose a platform to ensure that costs don't eat into your profits? This article will break down the cost structure of trading futures in Taiwan and overseas, compare the rates of major futures trading platforms, and help you find the most cost-effective way to enter the market.
What exactly do futures commissions include? How are they calculated?
What are the two main components of costs in Taiwan futures trading?
When trading large-volume futures in Taiwan, most investors do so through local futures brokers or international futures firms. Taiwan's local futures contracts are limited, mainly focusing on gold futures and Brent crude oil futures.
The fee structure of Taiwanese futures brokers includes transaction handling fees, settlement fees, delivery fees, and trading taxes. These costs are generally divided into two parts:
Part One: Futures Brokerage Commission
Different futures brokers charge varying commissions depending on the product, trading volume, and other factors.
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## After the RMB Strengths Break 7: Is There Room for Appreciation by 2026?
At the end of December, the RMB against the US dollar hit a new high for the period, with offshore RMB (USD/CNH) briefly touching 6.9965, the lowest since September 2024. Onshore RMB (USD/CNY) also fell below the psychological level of 7.01 to 7.0051, marking the first time since May 2023 that this level has been reached. What exactly is driving this round of market movement?
**Triple Forces Driving the RMB Appreciation**
This appreciation is mainly driven by three overlapping factors. First, the weakening of the US do
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The essential guide to Price-to-Earnings Ratio for stock investing: From zero basics to practical application
When investing in stocks, determining whether a stock is cheap or expensive, the Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE) is undoubtedly the most practical reference tool. Many analysts mention historical PE levels and current stock prices when evaluating individual stocks, thereby estimating a reasonable entry price. So, what exactly does the PE ratio represent? How is it calculated? And how can it be applied in actual stock selection? This article will guide you to a deeper understanding of this important indicator.
What is the PE Ratio? Core Concept Breakdown
The PE ratio, also known as the Price-to-Earnings Ratio, is the complete English term for 市盈率. Its core meaning is: using the current stock price to measure how many years it will take for the company to earn back its market value. In other words, it indicates how many years an investor needs to wait to break even.
For example, TSMC currently has a PE ratio of about 13, which means that at the current profit rate, the company needs 13 years of net earnings to equal its current market value; or
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Hidden Weapon in Forex Trading: Mastering Fibonacci Numbers to Accurately Predict Price Reversals
The Fibonacci sequence is a widely used trading tool in the foreign exchange market, utilizing its mathematical ratios to help predict the timing of asset price reversals. Traders use Fibonacci retracement lines to identify support and resistance levels, and combine Fibonacci extension settings to set profit targets. This method provides an objective and quantifiable framework, which has been favored by market participants.
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